The betting markets are fielding on the next Federal election and at the moment, the punters are saying Australians are set to elect the Labor Party to office.
There are several bookies offering odds and the best odds available are $1.62 for Labor and $2.60 for the Coalition. Allowing for the bookies margins, the probabilities are approximately 65 per cent chance of a Labor win and about a 35 per cent change of a Coalition win. This means Labor are a 2 in 3 chance of winning, with the Coalition a 1 in 3 chance. Enough of the lesson of odds.
Betting markets are not particularly reliable when elections are 6 to 12 months away. But the close the election is, the more accurate they become. Recent high profile exceptions were Brexit and Trump, but even there, the odds of both of those results was no wider than $5 a week or two from polling day.
For the elections in the UK, Australia, France, the same sex plebiscite, the two by elections in New England and Bennelong, were all won by the warm to hot favourites.
So for the Federal election – the punters and the polls are currently pointing to a change of government at the next Federal election. As the election draws nearer, watch for changes in the markets – the are usually correct.
