New trade:
The RBA has an obsession with house prices in Sydney and Melbourne and is prepared to hold all other sectors, and the rest of the country, to ransom as it wishes and hopes for those housing markets to weaken and some how for the other parts of the economy to pick up.
In my view, the RBA is (and has been) keeping monetary policy too tight for too long. In my view it is making a mistake not cutting rates in the wake of ongoing below trend GDP growth, record low wages, sustained low inflation and a horrid climate for business investment.
History shows that when central banks make a policy error, there are wonderful treading opportunities.
Hence my decision to: Go long short end bonds (eg 3 year at 2.00%); OIS at 1.75%; short AUD at USD0.7705 and vs EUR 0.7285.
As always, tightish stops and open end target. And this is NOT investment advise. Trade at your own risk.
