It is now almost two months since RBS analyst Andrew Roberts issued his “sell everything” recommendation to the world and I made the offer for him to have some skin the game with a bet that not only he’d be wrong, but that the majority of markets would rise. Here is that offer; https://thekouk.com/blog/sell-everything-my-challenge-to-andrew-roberts-of-rbs.html
Mr Roberts did not take the bet and while it is still early days in 2016, the scorecard reads:
The Kouk 8
Recall to win, Roberts only has to get six out of 11, which of course is hardly ‘sell everything’. Such was the facile nature of his forecast, I was generous with my offer.
In addition to the tally of wins versus losses, the orders of magnitude is interesting. A simple average of the 11 items is up a quite spectacular 3.3% – in less than two months. Not bad in the low inflation climate.
Level at time Latest Difference
of bet %
US stocks S&P500 1925.0 1932.0 0.364
Brazil stocks Ibovespa 39500.0 42793.0 8.337
China stocks Shenzhen 1850.0 1718.0 -7.135
Japan stocks Nikkei 17200.0 16026.0 -6.826
US house prices Case-Shiller 182.83 182.75 -0.044
UK 20 city house prices Hometrack 228800 231700 1.267
Sydney house prices Corelogic 915.00 923.58 0.938
Iron ore US$ tonne 40.50 48.90 20.741
Oil WTI US$ tonne 31.50 33.88 7.556
Copper US$ tonne 4325.00 4705.00 8.786
AUD/USD 0.7000 0.7140 2.000
Simple average 3.271
Obviously, there are 10 months to go and given the fickle nature of markets, things can change very quickly. I will continue to report on the bet roughly every month, win, lose or draw. But the early days are looking good…for me.