Punters are clearly not convinced that the turmoil in the government will lead to a Labor Party win at the upcoming Federal election.

With what could well turn out to be a repeat of Rudd-esque political treason and his sabotage of the Gillard government between 2010 and 2013, former PM Tony Abbott appears to be white-anting the efforts of Malcolm Turnbull for good government and policy reform.

Two polls this week, the influential Essential Research and then Newspoll, have the two party preferred vote at 50:50 and the momentum is clearly towards Labor.

The betting markets, however, have barely budged.

At the start of the year, the Coalition was $1.11 with Labor $6.50 to win the 2016 election. The market has edged slightly away from the Coalition, but only marginally, to the point where the latest betting is $1.15 for the Coalition and a still hefty $5.50 for Labor. In other words, the Coalition are highly likely to win.

Make no mistake – punters often get things wrong. Think of the $101 winner of the Melbourne Cup last year and Venus Wlliams losing a tennis match against a lowly ranked player when she was $1.01 to win. Upsets happen and punters can often misread the form or see exogenous shocks to an event.

It will be interesting to see whether the Federal election odds change as the election date draws inexorably closer or if, when the election is held, we get the proverbial outsider winning as an unloved (in betting terms) bolter.