It’s almost half a year since RBS analyst Andrew Roberts cranked out his headline seeking ‘sell everything’ recommendation for markets. And oh how wrong he has been.
My offer to him, to have some skin in the game of such a dramatic and massive forecast, was rejected. When we see how things are playing out, it is no wonder he ran away, unwilling to back up his view.
Here is the offer I made to Roberts: https://thekouk.com/blog/sell-everything-my-challenge-to-andrew-roberts-of-rbs.html
The scorecard this morning is:
The Kouk 10
Recall that to win, Roberts only had to get six out of 11.
The sole market where Roberts is ahead is the Nikkei which is down 3.2 per cent.
The average change is all 11 items is a gain of 12.9 per cent.
Level at time Latest Difference %
US stocks S&P500 1925 2099 9.0
Brazil stocks Ibovespa 39500 50619 28.1
China stocks Shenzhen 1850 2003 8.3
Japan stocks Nikkei 17200 16642 -3.2
US house prices Case-Shiller 182.83 184.50 0.9
UK 20 city house prices Hometrack 228800 232800 1.7
Sydney house prices Corelogic 915.00 982.18 7.3
Iron ore US$ tonne 40.50 50.08 23.7
Oil WTI $US a barrel 31.50 48.73 54.7
Copper US$ tonne 4325 5600 6.4
AUD/USD 0.7000 0.7350 5.0
Simple average 12.9
So there you go. That said, I am pretty sure the media who splashed page one coverage on the claim in January will not follow up – they will likely look for the next person to put out a crash, bang, wallop forecast and give it breathless coverage for which they will not be accountable.