Andrew Roberts, the “sell everything” analyst at RBS, has certainly gained a lot of coverage for himself and his business. If that was the aim, it was a great success to write such headline grabbing ‘research’ on the hope the media would run with it.
So ten out of ten for Andrew.
But the work prompted me to think about what Andrew was actually saying and I am wondering whether he is will to put his money where his mouth is. To that end, I sent his the following email.
I note with interest your “sell mostly everything” note from earlier this week. I think you will be wrong and in the spirit of the market and healthy competition would like to offer you a chance to personally benefit from your forecast.
How about a bet of, say, A$10,000, that more than half of the items in list below will be stronger on 31 December 2016 than they have been in recent days? I am open to a different amount to wager, just let me know what you are comfortable with.
I note with each the recent level or market price and if it is higher on 31 December, chalk that one to me, if it is lower, that is for you. I have 11 variables that you imply are a “sell” – they cover a range of asset classes and locations and if you are correct with your forecast, most will be lower than today. SO the winner will have six or more go in their favour.
US stocks (S&P 500) 1925.0 points
Brazil stocks (Ibovespa) 39,500 points
China stocks (Shenzhen) 1,850.0 points
Japan stocks (Nikkei) 17,200.0
US house prices (Case-Shiller 20 city) 182.83 points
UK 20 city house prices (Hometrack measure) GBP228,800
Sydney House prices (Corelogic index) 915.00
Iron Ore US$40.50 a tonne
Oil WTI $US31.50 a barrel
Copper US$4,325 a tonne
Please let me know if you are happy to take up the offer. I am will to put my hard earned money where my mouth is – I hope you are too.
All the best
Andrew has yet to respond to my very generous offer. After all, he only has to get six out of 11 to win – not “everything”. I will confirm whether or not Andrew is up for the challenge.
Either way, I will track this post from time to time.