As we get well entrenched in the second half of the year, markets and economies continue to track along with more good news than bad.

For RBS analyst Andrew Roberts, who grabbed global headlines with his “sell everything” forecast at the start of the year, this is bad news. Anyone who followed that forecast, which looked absurd at the time, will be hurting badly as most stocks, commodities and other asset prices keep on rising.

For those who might have missed it, when Roberts made his ridiculous forecast, I offered him a bet that he would be wrong – not on ‘everything’, but just 6 of 11 variables. The bet I offered Roberts 

He squibbed at the chance to put his money where his mouth was.

Some eight months since the bet and the scorecard reads as follows:

The Kouk   10
Roberts     1

As has been the case for the bulk of the year, the only market where Roberts is ahead is Nikkei which is down 0.6 per cent.

Including that fall, the average rise in the 11 items that Roberts suggested should be sold, the gain so far is a marvelous 18.3 per cent. In the current era of low inflation and low interest rates, that’s about 5 years return in just 8 months.

                                                   Level at time               Latest             Difference %
                                                      of bet
US stocks S&P500                            1925                        2180                  13.3
Brazil stocks Ibovespa                     39500                      59616                  50.9
China stocks Shenzhen                      1850                       2116                   14.4
Japan stocks Nikkei                         17200                      17102                   -0.6
US house prices Case-Shiller           182.83                    189.87                   3.9
UK 20 city house prices Hometrack   228800                  240000                4.9
Sydney house prices Corelogic              915                      1024                11.9
Iron ore US$ tonne                           40.50                        59.40                  46.7
Oil WTI US$ tonne                            31.50                        44.45                  41.1
Copper US$ tonne                             4325                        4616                   6.7
AUD/USD                                       0.7000                      0.7590                   8.4

Simple average                                                                                         18.3

The gullible media, that breathlessly and uncritically peddled Robert’s work back in January, have been silent on any follow up on the story they gave so much prominence. What a pity. But perhaps it just goes to prove, once again, that an ill-founded, scary economic and market forecast will always get huge media coverage and publicity for the person making the outlandish call, regardless of its credibility. 

My next article might be why Australian is poised to fall into recession next year! I’m joking and oh wait, there are already have clowns forecasting that.