As we get well entrenched in the second half of the year, markets and economies continue to track along with more good news than bad.
For RBS analyst Andrew Roberts, who grabbed global headlines with his “sell everything” forecast at the start of the year, this is bad news. Anyone who followed that forecast, which looked absurd at the time, will be hurting badly as most stocks, commodities and other asset prices keep on rising.
For those who might have missed it, when Roberts made his ridiculous forecast, I offered him a bet that he would be wrong – not on ‘everything’, but just 6 of 11 variables. The bet I offered Roberts https://thekouk.com/blog/sell-everything-my-challenge-to-andrew-roberts-of-rbs.html
He squibbed at the chance to put his money where his mouth was.
Some eight months since the bet and the scorecard reads as follows:
The Kouk 10
As has been the case for the bulk of the year, the only market where Roberts is ahead is Nikkei which is down 0.6 per cent.
Including that fall, the average rise in the 11 items that Roberts suggested should be sold, the gain so far is a marvelous 18.3 per cent. In the current era of low inflation and low interest rates, that’s about 5 years return in just 8 months.
Level at time Latest Difference %
US stocks S&P500 1925 2180 13.3
Brazil stocks Ibovespa 39500 59616 50.9
China stocks Shenzhen 1850 2116 14.4
Japan stocks Nikkei 17200 17102 -0.6
US house prices Case-Shiller 182.83 189.87 3.9
UK 20 city house prices Hometrack 228800 240000 4.9
Sydney house prices Corelogic 915 1024 11.9
Iron ore US$ tonne 40.50 59.40 46.7
Oil WTI US$ tonne 31.50 44.45 41.1
Copper US$ tonne 4325 4616 6.7
AUD/USD 0.7000 0.7590 8.4
Simple average 18.3
The gullible media, that breathlessly and uncritically peddled Robert’s work back in January, have been silent on any follow up on the story they gave so much prominence. What a pity. But perhaps it just goes to prove, once again, that an ill-founded, scary economic and market forecast will always get huge media coverage and publicity for the person making the outlandish call, regardless of its credibility.
My next article might be why Australian is poised to fall into recession next year! I’m joking and oh wait, there are already have clowns forecasting that.