During a holiday clean up, I came across an email that my former colleague at TD Securities, Jacqui Douglas (who is now Chief European Macro Strategist in London), circulated a little before I left.
It was apparently a list of rules that David Rosenberg, Chief Economist at Merrill Lynch at the time, circulated about being a good and relevant market economist.
The list, reproduced below, should be seen as an Economists Constitution. For those in the business of economic forecasting and market strategy, read it and see how many of the rules you stick to and how many you break. It is a lot of fun and certainly something that should also be read by those covering economics and markets, especially those who seem to have a strong bias to give oxygen to those who break most of these rules.
Here they are:
Rosie’s Rules to remember
1. In order for an economic forecast to be relevant, it must be combined with a market call.
2. Never be a slave to the data – they are no substitute for astute observation of the big picture.
3. The consensus rarely gets it right and almost always errs on the side if optimism – expect at the bottom.
4. Fall in love with your partner, not your forecast.
5. No two cycles are ever the same.
6. Never hide behind your model.
7. Always seek out corroborating evidence.
8. Have respect for what the markets are telling you.
9. Be constantly aware with your forecast horizon – many clients live in the short run.
10. Of all the market forecasters, Mr Bond gets it right most often.
11. Highlight the risks to your forecasts.
12. Get the US consumer right and everything else will take care of itself.
13. Expansions are more fun than recession.