It has now been four months since RBS analyst Andrew Roberts shocked the world, or at least the gullible, with his recommendation to investors to “sell everything”. This nutty ‘forecast’ prompted me to offer Mr Roberts some skin in the game with a bet that he would be wrong. The bet was outlined here: https://thekouk.com/blog/sell-everything-my-challenge-to-andrew-roberts-of-rbs.html
The scorecard after nearly four months is:
The Kouk 9
Recall that to win, Roberts only has to get six out of 11 – ‘everything’ did not need to fall.
The two markets where Roberts is ahead are US house prices which are down 0.02 per cent and the Nikkei which is down 3.1 per cent. Some that he missed are quite extraordinary. The iron ore price is up 64 per cent, oil 46 per cent, Brazilian stocks are up 36 per cent and even US stocks are up ov er 7 per cent.
The weighted average gain on the 11 items is a fantastic 17.1 per cent. Here is the table.
Level at time Latest Difference %
US stocks S&P500 1925 2060 7.273
Brazil stocks Ibovespa 39500 53910 36.481
China stocks Shenzhen 1850 1960 5.946
Japan stocks Nikkei 17200 16666 -3.105
US house prices Case-Shiller 182.83 182.79 -0.022
UK 20 city house prices Hometrack 228800 235800 3.059
Sydney house prices Corelogic 915.00 955.18 4.391
Iron ore US$ tonne 40.50 66.24 63.556
Oil WTI US$ tonne 31.50 45.92 45.778
Copper US$ tonne 4325 5044 16.624
AUD/USD 0.7000 0.7595 8.500
Simple average 17.135
If it looks too stupid to be true, it probably is. And so it was for Mr Roberts.