With just two months to go to assess the absurd forecast from RBS analyst Andrew Roberts at the start of the year to “sell everything”, it gives me little pleasure to note that his forecast continues to be humiliatingly wrong.
If Roberts has any clients left, they would be reeling if they had taken his advise on a range of asset classes he said were a “sell” when in fact most have been rallying strongly.
As a reminder of the issue at hand, when Roberts made his outlandish, headline grabbing forecast, I offered him a chance to have some skin in the game. I was overly generous in my offering noting that he would need to get just 6 of 11 variables to win a $A10,000 bet – not ‘everything’ had to fall for him to be right. The bet I offered Roberts is here https://thekouk.com/blog/sell-everything-my-challenge-to-andrew-roberts-of-rbs.html
Some ten months since the bet and the scorecard reads:
The Kouk 10
As has been the case for the bulk of the year, the only market where Roberts is ahead is the Nikkei which is down a piddling 0.2 per cent.
Including that fall, the average rise in the 11 items that Roberts suggested should be sold, the gain so far is a marvelous 22.1 per cent. In the current era of low inflation and low interest rates, that’s about 6 years return in just 10 months.
Level at time Latest Difference %
US stocks S&P500 1925 2125 10.4
Brazil stocks Ibovespa 39500 64051 62.2
China stocks Shenzhen 1850 2068 11.8
Japan stocks Nikkei 17200 17160 -0.2
US house prices Case-Shiller 182.83 191.66 4.8
UK 20 city house prices Hometrack 228800 239100 4.5
Sydney house prices Corelogic 915 1042 13.9
Iron ore US$ tonne 40.50 67.40 66.5
Oil WTI US$ barrel 31.50 44.61 41.6
Copper US$ tonne 4325 5079 17.4
AUD/USD 0.7000 0.7710 10.1
Simple average 22.1
Just as bad as Roberts, were the fawning media who gave him blanket coverage. They owe a duty to follow up on the story just to make sure otherwise trusting readers are aware that such forecasts are horrid snake oil designed to get attention.
Roberts refused to take up my bet which says quite a lot.