The Federal election is still probably 125 or 130 weeks away, but many of the online bookmakers are already offering odds on various aspects of what might happen in politics between now and polling day and of course, who might win.


The Coalition government are warm to hot favourites to win the 2016 election, at $1.45 versus $2.70 for Labor, despite some of the polls that currently have Labor well ahead on a two-party preferred basis. It just goes to show what punters, and the bookies, think of the predictive power of polls two and a half years away from election day. 


It is interesting to see that there has been some money flowing for a change in the leader of the Liberal Party. While Mr Abbott is clearly a hot $1.12 favourite to be leader at the next election, he was as short as $1.07 quite recently. Mr Turnbull is second favourite to lead the Liberal Party at $6.00. Outside that it is $10.00 about Mr Hockey, $13.00 for Ms Julie Bishop and then way out to $34.00 for Christopher Pyne. For those with a sense of humour, Peter Dutton is $101.00.


The bookies odds suggest there is some chance of a change in Labor leader before the next election, although this is probably based on the form guide of the last 7 or 8 years rather than an acknowledgment of the new reality about how stable Labor now appears to be after the debacle of Kevin Rudd’s return in 2013. Mr Shorten is $1.28 to be Labor leader at the next election with Mr Albanese $7.50, Mr Bowen $9.00, Ms Plibersek $12.00, Mr Clare $14.00, and Mr Burke $19.00. Kim Carr is $151.00 which still seems too short. 

My money – at the moment – is squarely in my pocket, although at $1.12 Mr Abbott seems fair odds and Mr Shorten, at $1.28 seems overs.