Get ready for a cash rate cut in April

Mon, 25 Mar 2019  |  

This article first appeared on the Yahoo Finance website at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/get-ready-cash-rate-cut-april-193244245.html

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Get ready for a cash rate cut in April

The data is in and it is compelling.

The Australian economy is faltering and the risk is that it will weaken further if nothing is done to address this decline.Not only has there been recent confirmation of a per capita GDP recession – that is, on a per person basis the economy has been shrinking for two straight quarters – but inflation is embedded below 2 per cent, wages growth is floundering just above 2 per cent, house prices are dropping at 1 per cent per month and dwelling construction is in free fall.

Add to this cocktail of economic woe an unambiguous slide in global economic conditions, general pessimism for both consumers and business alike and a worrying slide in the number of job advertisements all of which spells economic trouble.Blind Freddie can see that there is an urgent need for some policy action. And the sooner the better.For the Reserve Bank of Australia, there is no need to wait for yet more information on the economy.

It has been hopelessly wrong in its judgment about the economy over the past year, always expecting a growth pick up “soon”. Instead, GDP has all but stalled meaning that inflation, which is already well below the RBA’s target, is likely to fall further.In short, no. It is not like a 25 basis point interest rate cut on 2 April and another 25 in, say, May or June will reignite inflation and pump air into a house price bubble.

Such a claim would be laughable if there are any commentators left suggesting this.

On the contrary, inflation is so low that at best, it might touch 2 or 2.25 per cent in a year or so and the decline in house prices might slow to 0.5 per cent per month even if official interest rates were slashed to 0.5 per cent, some 100 basis points below where they are today. Any interest rate cuts would almost inevitably see the Aussie dollar fall, helping the export sector to grow.

Free money, in other words, to our export sector from easier monetary policy.It would also free up cash flow for the business sector, which has a little under $1 trillion of debt meaning it would be easier to service its collective debt with lower interest rates.

And then there is the ever fragile consumer. With around $1.3 trillion of debt, a 0.5 per cent reduction in interest costs would save around $6.5 billion a year, money that could be used to reduce debt (which is good) or be spend in the economy (also good). The impact is more than the rumoured size of the income tax cuts that Treasurer Josh Frybenberg will announce in the budget, coincidently on the same day the RBA Board next meets.

Unlike the income tax cuts, which either add to the budget deficit or reduce the budget surplus, interest rate cuts are free!The stroke of a pen and the press of a few keys on a key board is all it takes to get this stimulus into the economy. This would see firms making more money, consumers having more cash in their pockets and incentive to hire more workers and pay them more raised.

Interest rates cut would actually improve the budget bottom line because of the stimulus they give to spending, inflation and tax revenue.It is the proverbial no-brainer. So for the RBA Board, there is not that much to think about.

Cut interest rates on 2 April and again quickly thereafter and sit back and watch the positive effects of those moves flow through the economy. Things will not improve overnight.But like the first antibiotic in a 5 day course of medicine, it will start to heal the otherwise sick economy.

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THE LATEST FROM THE KOUK

Change of view on interest rates

Fri, 24 May 2019

Having been the only economist to correctly anticipate an interest rate cut from the RBA when close to 50bps of interest rate hikes were priced in to the market last year (See Bloomberg 17 August 2018), I have agonised over the exact months the cuts would be delivered and then how many rate cuts would be needed to reflate the economy.

Recently, I was of the view that the RBA would need to cut 100bps from now, to a level of 0.5%, but I did so with relatively low confidence. This is why I recommended all clients to close their long interest rate positions on 17 April 2019 (when the implied yields were 1.10% for the mid 2020 OIS; 1.35% on 3 year yields and the Aussie dollar was just over 0.7000 at the time).

Like in most good trades that were massively in the money, I left a little money on the table while I reassessed the outlook.

Since calling for interest rate cuts from the RBA, a lot of water has passed under the bridge, especially in the last few weeks.

Events mean I am changing my view on interest rates and have been placing / will be looking to implement new trades.

Watch out Australia: There's a flood of dismal economic news on the horizon

Wed, 01 May 2019

This article first appeared on the Yahoo Finance website at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/watch-out-australia-theres-a-flood-of-dismal-economic-news-on-the-horizon-211110783.html

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Watch out Australia: There's a flood of dismal economic news on the horizon

The Australian economy is in trouble and Scott Morrison and the Liberal Party government need to come clean and acknowledge this and outline a framework how this period of economic funk is to be addressed if they win the 18 May election.

The Liberal Party is campaigning in the election on a “strong economy” and being “good economic managers”, bold claims that fly in the face of the latest score card for the economy.

That scorecard shows a flood of what is, frankly, disappointing or even dismal economic news. Australia is going through a very rare recession in per capita GDP terms and last week saw data showing zero inflation in the March quarter. Contribution to these indictors of economic funk is the fact that well over half a trillion dollars of householder wealth has been destroyed as house prices have tumbled.

Add to that the fact reported by the Australian Office of Financial management last week that gross government debt is $543 billion, almost double the level that the Coalition government inherited in September 2013, and the scorecard is looking very ratty indeed.

As the ad man used to say, “but wait, there’s more”.