Would proposed income tax cuts benefit you?

Mon, 25 Jun 2018  |  

This article first appeared on the Yahoo7 Finance website at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/proposed-income-tax-cuts-benefit-230812222.html 

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Would proposed income tax cuts benefit you?

Cuts in income taxes are a hot political issue at the moment, with the government trying to get its seven-year plan for lower income taxes through the Senate.

Whether those tax cuts are affordable in the current era of budget deficits and rising government debt is an important issue. Many economists reckon the budget should be in healthy surplus before the government sprays tax cuts around the community. This seems a sensible take, given the risks unfolding for the economy as house prices fall, wages growth hovers near record lows and the global economy starts to cool. If these issues bite the Australian economy, the return to budget surplus will be pushed back a further few years not least because of tax cuts that should not have been delivered.

There is also the vital issue of whether there are higher priorities for the $144 billion the government is planning to forgo to fund the lower tax scales. This issue is where the political debate is also gaining heat with Labor reckoning the money would be better allocated to health, education and funding the ABC.

There is another issue, which unfortunately gets too little attention, and that is if we are to proceed with income tax cuts over the next few years, who should get them?

This is important given the current economic picture of dismally weak wages growth and rising inequality within the Australian community. It is also important given the growing income and wealth inequality which has seen the financial well-being of low and middle income earners fall relative to high and very high income earners. Suffice to say, to the extent that there will be tax cuts, the discussion needs to ensure that the bulk of the benefit from a lower tax take be directed to low income earners.

There are several reasons for this, not least because it is fair.

Importantly, and in the context of trying to kick start the rate of economic growth, tax cuts to low income earners have a more powerful effect on consumer spending than if the tax cuts are skewed to high income earners. This is because those on lower incomes have a higher propensity to consume (spend) than those on very high incomes.

By way of illustration, this ‘propensity to consume’ means that someone on, say $50,000 a year who gets an extra $500 from lower income taxes is likely to spend almost all of that extra money. The extra take home income will boost consumer spending and with that, the overall rate of growth in the economy will increase.

If, conversely, the $500 a year income tax cut is directed at someone on, say $200,000, there will be less of that extra $500 add to spending and there will be a less powerful impact on bottom line economic growth. This is because high income earners save a larger share of their income as their income rises.

If one of the aims of income tax cuts is to generate additional economic growth which will lift the business sector, lower unemployment and reflate a deflated economy, any income tax cuts should be skewed towards low income earners.
This is good economics and good social policy.
A simple increase in the tax free threshold, for example, and in the income level at which the 19 per cent threshold kicks in would have a more powerful effect on economic growth than tinkering with the tax scales for those earning $90,000 or $180,000 a year.

Alas, this is not the focus of the current tax plan of the government.  Which is why the tax cuts are not only risking the return to budget surplus, but they will do little to boost growth. Worst still, there will add to inequality at a time when more progressive policies are needed.

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The misplaced objective of the government of delivering a surplus, come hell or high water, has gone up in smoke

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What's ahead for the Australian economy and markets in 2020

Thu, 02 Jan 2020

What's ahead for the Australian economy and markets in 2020

Happy New Year!

2020 will be a year where Australia’s annual GDP will exceed $2 trillion, our population will get very close to 26 million people and we will clock up 29 years with no recession.

It is also a year where the economy will be a dominant issue for policy makers, will drive what happens to interest rates, will help drive investment returns and will feed into the well-being of the Australian community. 

2020 kicks off with relatively good news in terms of economic growth, even though the labour market is likely to remain weak, with wages growth struggling to lift and inflation remaining below the RBA’s 2 to 3 per cent target. The Reserve Bank may have one more interest rate cut in its kit bag, but by year end, the market is likely to price in interest rate increases, albeit modestly.

The ASX, which had a great 2019 is set to be flatten out, in part driven by the change in the interest rate outlook, but it should get a boost from better news on housing and household spending.

In terms of the specifics, I have broken down the 2020 outlook into a range of categories and given a broad explanation on the issues underpinning the themes outlined.

GDP Growth

It’s a positive outlook. A pick-up in GDP growth from the current 1.7 per cent annual rate is unfolding, with the only real issue is the extent of the acceleration.