Will the Banking Royal Commission undermine the economy?

Tue, 24 Apr 2018  |  

This article first appeared on the Yahoo7 Finance website at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/will-banking-royal-commission-undermine-economy-054126660.html 

----------------------------------------------------------------------  

Will the Banking Royal Commission undermine the economy?

 For those of us worried about the health of the economy, economic growth and the objective of full-employment, the findings of the banking Royal Commission are extremely worrying.

There is a real risk that the revelations about the misconduct and devious practises of the banks will have the dual effect of undermining already fragile sentiment and will force the banks to tighten up on their credit policies. If ether of both of these happen, there would be a downgrading of investment and spending plans in an economy that is already growing below its long run trend. Sound, financially secure and well-run banks are the bedrock of a modern and successful economy.

Banks and other financial institutions allow consumers to borrow money for their house, to fund some of their personal expenditure while at the same time, often manage their superannuation savings. They also help business, big and small, expand and invest.

When there is broadly based high level of confidence in how these relationships and transactions function, with professionalism and prudence, the economy generally runs like a well-oiled machine. Money is lent, savings accumulate and businesses invest and employ. When there is a crisis of confidence, when uncertainty increases about the veracity and functioning of the banking system, the wheels can quickly fall off the economy.
Which leads to the yet to be felt fall-out from the Royal Commission.

The blanket coverage of the evidence given so far, including on social media, is likely to cause some to have second thoughts about safety and effects of doing business with their bank. Banks share prices are sharply lower. But even if the effect is marginal, it will undermine credit growth and therefore spending and investment at a time when the economy is struggling to lift its performance.

Recent data on employment, retail sales, house prices, building activity, wages and inflation are all weak. Credit growth, which measures the growth in borrowing, is already showing signs of weakening.

In annual terms, the latest data shows that housing credit grew by 6.2 per cent, the weakest result since 2014. Personal borrowings are falling, down 1.1 per cent over the past year and they have been declining since 2015. Business borrowing, which is so vital for any upswing in business investment and job creation, is increasing by just 3.6 per cent which is well down from the 7 per cent growth rate seen in 2016.

Suffice to say, there is already evidence of a mix of soft economic activity and weak credit growth across the main sectors of the economy.

With the Royal Commission still having at least 8 months to have public hearing and the possibility this gets an extension, the run of disconcerting news and evidence is likely to continue for that time. The banks are likely to try to stay clean from now, not wanting to attract any further negative blow back while the Commission is hearing evidence and before the recommendations are forthcoming. This could see them further curtail their lending, for fear of writing bad loans at a time when the economy is just muddling along.

Suffice to say, one of the unintended consequences of the banking Royal Commission might be to drag the economy lower from an unimpressive starting point. When the RBA is signalling the next move in official interest rates is up and when household wealth is being eroded by falling house prices, this could end very badly.

comments powered by Disqus

THE LATEST FROM THE KOUK

How Labor lost the federal election SO badly

Thu, 07 Nov 2019

This article first appeared on the Yahoo Finance website on 20 May 2019 at this link:  https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-labor-lost-the-election-so-badly-211049089.html 

----------------------------
How Labor lost the federal election SO badly

The Coalition did not win the election, Labor lost it.

The tally since 1993 for Labor is a devastating seven losses out of nine Federal elections. By the time of the next election in 2022, Labor will have been in Opposition for 23 of the last 29 years. Miserable.

The reasons for Labor’s 2019 election loss are much more than the common analysis that Labor’s policy agenda on tax reform was a big target that voters were not willing to embrace.

Where the Labor Party also capitulated and have for some time was in a broader discussion of the economy where it failed dismally to counter the Coalition’s claims about “a strong economy”.

In what should have been political manna from heaven for Labor, the latest economic data confirmed Australia to be in a per capita recession. This devastating economic scorecard for the Coalition government was rarely if ever mentioned by Labor leader Bill Shorten and his team during the election campaign.

This was an error.

If Labor spoke of the “per capita recession” as much as the Coalition mentioned a “strong economy”, voters would have had their economic and financial uncertainties and concerns confirmed by an elevated debate on the economy based on facts.

This parlous economic position could have been cited by Labor for its reform agenda.

Why animals are a crucial part of the Australian economy

Thu, 07 Nov 2019

This article was written on 31 October 2019: It was on the Yahoo Finance website at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/animals-crucial-australian-economy-192927904.html 

------------------------------------------------------

Why animals are a crucial part of the Australian economy

Animals are a critical part of the Australian economy, either for food, companionship or entertainment.

But every month, millions of sheep, cattle, pigs, chickens, fish and other animals are bred and then killed. Most of them are killed in what we define as ‘humane’, but no doubt tens of thousands are horribly mistreated, as are a proportion of the animals we keep as pets.

Animals are slaughtered to provide food for human food consumption, to feed other animals (your cats and dogs are carnivorous) and for fertiliser.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics collects a range of data on animal slaughterings and the most recent release of the Livestock and Meat data release included the following facts.