Sydney house prices going from hero to zero

Tue, 20 Feb 2018  |  

According to the wonderful Corelogic house price series, Sydney house prices have grown by 0.00 per cent over the past year.

This annual result masks what are some weaker trends for the Sydney housing market including the fact that prices have fallen 3.8 per cent from the September 2017 peak. In other words, a dwelling that was $1,000,000 in September is now worth around $962,000, a drop of $38,000.

Is this a problem?

Not yet.

Could it become a problem?

Maybe – it is too early to be sure.

Suffice to say, falling house prices are not just a problem for the borrowers who entered the market at the peak of the cycle, but also for the banks that lent them the money. A 3.8 per cent decline after 7 or so years where prices rose 100 per cent is small beer.

But if the falls continue, and declines of 5, 6 and 7 per cent or more become common place, a few waning signals will be out there for the economy.

For the RBA, raising interest rates at a time of falling house prices will be a big no no. A housing crash is still the most likely cause of the next recession in Australia, albeit, for now a very remote possibility. The RBA knows this, even if it does not say as much publically.

Which is why any further weakness in house prices not only kills the prospects for interest rate hikes, but adds to the case for interest rate cuts.

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The misplaced objective of the government of delivering a surplus, come hell or high water, has gone up in smoke

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The misplaced objective of the government of delivering a surplus, come hell or high water, has gone up in smoke

For many people, the cost of the fires is immeasurable. 

Or irrelevant. 

They have lost loved ones, precious possessions, businesses and dreams and for these people, what lies ahead is bleak.

Life has changed forever.

As the fires continue to ravage through huge tracts of land, destroying yet more houses, more property, incinerating livestock herds, hundreds of millions of wildlife, birds and burning millions of hectares of forests, it is important to think about the plans for what lies ahead.

The rebuilding task will be huge.

Several thousands of houses, commercial buildings and infrastructure will require billions of dollars and thousands of workers to rebuild. Then there are the furniture and fittings for these buildings – carpets, fridges, washing machines, clothes, lounges, dining tables, TVs and the like will be purchased to restock.

Then there are the thousands of cars and other machinery and equipment that will need to be replaced. 

What's ahead for the Australian economy and markets in 2020

Thu, 02 Jan 2020

What's ahead for the Australian economy and markets in 2020

Happy New Year!

2020 will be a year where Australia’s annual GDP will exceed $2 trillion, our population will get very close to 26 million people and we will clock up 29 years with no recession.

It is also a year where the economy will be a dominant issue for policy makers, will drive what happens to interest rates, will help drive investment returns and will feed into the well-being of the Australian community. 

2020 kicks off with relatively good news in terms of economic growth, even though the labour market is likely to remain weak, with wages growth struggling to lift and inflation remaining below the RBA’s 2 to 3 per cent target. The Reserve Bank may have one more interest rate cut in its kit bag, but by year end, the market is likely to price in interest rate increases, albeit modestly.

The ASX, which had a great 2019 is set to be flatten out, in part driven by the change in the interest rate outlook, but it should get a boost from better news on housing and household spending.

In terms of the specifics, I have broken down the 2020 outlook into a range of categories and given a broad explanation on the issues underpinning the themes outlined.

GDP Growth

It’s a positive outlook. A pick-up in GDP growth from the current 1.7 per cent annual rate is unfolding, with the only real issue is the extent of the acceleration.