Your Bets Friend: Labor warm favourites to win the next election

Fri, 05 Jan 2018  |  

The betting markets are fielding on the next Federal election and at the moment, the punters are saying Australians are set to elect the Labor Party to office.

There are several bookies offering odds and the best odds available are $1.62 for Labor and $2.60 for the Coalition. Allowing for the bookies margins, the probabilities are approximately 65 per cent chance of a Labor win and about a 35 per cent change of a Coalition win. This means Labor are a 2 in 3 chance of winning, with the Coalition a 1 in 3 chance. Enough of the lesson of odds.

Betting markets are not particularly reliable when elections are 6 to 12 months away. But the close the election is, the more accurate they become. Recent high profile exceptions were Brexit and Trump, but even there, the odds of both of those results was no wider than $5 a week or two from polling day.

For the elections in the UK, Australia, France, the same sex plebiscite, the two by elections in New England and Bennelong, were all won by the warm to hot favourites.

So for the Federal election – the punters and the polls are currently pointing to a change of government at the next Federal election. As the election draws nearer, watch for changes in the markets – the are usually correct.

 

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This article first appeared on the Yahoo 7 website at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/3665708-004156966.html 

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Why Australians have lost $300 Billion this year

The total wealth of Australians has dropped by close to $300 billion since the start of 2018.

How much of that is yours?

The fall in house prices and now the slump in the stock market is undermining the wealth of Australian householders.

This is an important trend given the solid link between the change in wealth and household spending. Numerous studies show that when wealth increases, growth in household spending is faster than it would otherwise be. It appears that householders view their extra wealth in a manner that sees them lower their other savings or use that wealth as collateral for additional borrowing fund extra consumption. They may even ‘cash in’ their extra wealth and use those gains to fund additional spending.

When they observe falling wealth, experience weak wages growth and realise their savings rates are perilously low, they will adjust their spending – down.

Labor almost home, not quite hosed

Mon, 22 Oct 2018

The extraordinary vote in the Wentworth by election, with the 18 or 19 per cent swing against the Liberal Party, presents further evidence that the Morrison government is set to lose the next general election.

There is nothing particularly new in this with the major nation-wide polls showing the Liberal Party a hefty 6 to 10 points behind Labor.

The election is unlikely to be held before May 2019, which is a long 7 months away. A lot can happen in that time but for the Liberal Party to get competitive, but for this to happen there needs to be a run of extraordinary developments.

In the aftermath of the Wentworth by election, the betting markets saw Labor’s odds shorten.

While the odds vary from betting agency to betting agency, the best available odds at the time of writing was $1.25 for Labor and $4.00 for the Coalition.

If, as most now seem to suggest, Labor is ‘across the line’, $1.25 is a great 25 per cent, tax free return for 7 months ‘investment’. Yet, punters are not quite so sure and seem to be holding off the big bets just in case something out of the ordinary happens.

While some segments of the economy look quite good, at least on face value – note the unemployment rate and GDP – others that probably matter more to voters – husong, share prices, wages and other high-frewquency cost of living issues are all looking rather parlous. And none of these are likely to change soon.

There is an old saying for punters – odds on, look on. But $1.25 for Labor seem great value.