At the same time, growth in wages is at a record low which has feed into the slump in retail sales growth which in February which recorded one of its weakest months in almost 17 years. Business investment remains sluggish, despite reasonable levels of business confidence, and credit growth continues to weaken. The only bright area for the economy is the strong performance of export volumes.
And even on this score, there are some worries starting to build. The surge in commodity prices that was evident during 2016 is starting to go into reverse. The iron ore price is now 15 per cent down from its recent high while coal prices have dropped around 30 per cent in recent months, both of which will pare back the gains to national income from what was a promising commodity price pick up.
A strong Keynesian would argue that these are not the circumstances where spending cuts and tax increases – the main means to return to budget surplus – are appropriate. Indeed, the case could be made for constructive fiscal stimulus to ensure the growth momentum of the economy picks up and the negative news on jobs and inflation reverses.