Despite the polls, Labor are only warm favourites for 2019 election

Mon, 27 Feb 2017  |  

The election betting markets react to the weight of money punters place on each possible outcome. When there is a disproportionate flow on one side, its odds shorten (ie, is more likely to win) and the other side widens.

As a result the betting markets reveal the weighted average probability of each possible outcome, be that in elections or on any other event.

In terms of the next Federal election, the opinion polls have Labor 6, 8 or 10 points ahead of the Coalition. Any of these results would result in a thumping election win for Labor.

The betting markets are not as convincing about Labor’s chances at the next election. Labor is favourite, but not overwhelmingly so. In other words, punters are not willing to place their hard earned cash on Labor in sufficient volume at the current odds to drive the price lower. It could be because the election is still probably two years away and a lot might happen between now and then, or that Malcolm Turnbull might pull a proverbial rabbit out of the hat – who knows, but the latest (and best) odds show:

Labor $1.68
Coalition $2.25

Now remember: The bookies and the odds are never wrong. 5,000 to one shots win soccer championships, Trump won the US election at 100 to 1 and Ajax lost the 1939 Rawson stakes at $1.02. The glorious uncertainty in life and in probabilities – which are often reflected in betting markets – are show favourites winning or losing.

Suffice to say, polls two years out from election day have an low predictive power, so too betting markets. From this perspective, it appears the Coalition government will be in deep trouble at the next election, but the betting markets are not so parlous and as they say, 100 weeks is a long time in politics.

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THE LATEST FROM THE KOUK

Why are Bill Shorten and Labor scared to run on the economy?

Tue, 21 Mar 2017

This article first appeared on The Guardian website at this link: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/16/why-are-bill-shorten-and-labor-scared-to-run-on-the-economy 

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Why are Bill Shorten and Labor scared to run on the economy?

The dust is settling from the Western Australian election and there are some implications for the way the federal Labor party should conduct itself from now until the next election if it is to enhance its chances of winning.

For the Liberal party, the lessons are clear. It might sound trite to mention it but its electoral success will depend almost exclusively on its ability to deliver materially better economic conditions between now and election day.

For Labor, the task is easier. It needs to take the initiative on the economy, economic policy, the budget deficit and government debt and highlight how poor the Coalition has been in most aspects of economic managements since the 2013 election.

In those three-and-a-half years of the Coalition being in charge of the economy and budget, growth has been sluggish despite favourable conditions in Australia’s major trading partners. The Australian economy should be stronger because of the welcome news of the Australian dollar falling sharply in recent years, which has provided a boost to domestic economic conditions. What’s more, interest rates have been cut to record lows, yet the economy has been struggling to register annual GDP growth near 2.5%, the unemployment rate is the same as when the Coalition won the 2013 election, wages growth has plummeted to a record low, and the government debt has grown significantly faster than during the previous Labor government, which of course included the fiscal stimulus measures that kept Australia out of recession.

Ever since the mid-1990s, the Labor party has been reluctant to run hard on issues to do with the economy. For some reason, it is riddled with self-doubt that stems, it appears, from the high interest rates of the late 1980s and early 1990s, and its proactive use of budget debts and moderate debt accumulation during the global crisis to ensure Australia kept growing and to protect an estimated 200,000 jobs.

A $2 billion national building snow job

Sat, 18 Mar 2017

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull reckons his Snowy Hydro $2 billion investment is a “nation building project”.

Yes, that is what he said. Really. Turnbull think a one-off $2 billion government infrastructure project is “nation building”.

Let’s look at $2 billion in the context of the Australian economy.

In the December quarter 2016, Australia’s GDP was $435,445 billion dollars (seasonally adjusted). This works out at $4,769 billion a day which makes the $2 billion snow job about 10 hours GDP.

Useful? Sure!

Nation building? Ha!

By 2020, Australia’s GDP will be around $510,000 billion a quarter and $2 billion will be akin to about 8 hours GDP.

Here’s what elese $2 billion is now days.