Now remember: The bookies and the odds are never wrong. 5,000 to one shots win soccer championships, Trump won the US election at 100 to 1 and Ajax lost the 1939 Rawson stakes at $1.02. The glorious uncertainty in life and in probabilities – which are often reflected in betting markets – are show favourites winning or losing.
Suffice to say, polls two years out from election day have an low predictive power, so too betting markets. From this perspective, it appears the Coalition government will be in deep trouble at the next election, but the betting markets are not so parlous and as they say, 100 weeks is a long time in politics.