Why the Aussie dollar is flying high

Mon, 13 Feb 2017  |  

This article first appeared on the Yahoo 7 Finance website at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/aussie-dollar-where-art-thou-035132180.html 


Why the Aussie dollar is flying high

The Australian dollar has been rising strongly over the past six months and not just against the US dollar where this morning it is hovering just under 78 cents.

The Aussie dollar is also buying over 0.72 euros, the highest level it has been since early 2015 and is up some 10 per cent since May last year. It is also strong against the British pound, Japanese yen and Canadian dollar. In simple terms, the Aussie dollar is flying.
The reasons for the strength are clear.

Importantly, Australia has some of the highest interest rates in the industrialised world which means global investors are keen to pick up a positive yield with their Australian holdings versus those in other countries. With the RBA signaling that is has no plans to cut interest rates and rates in Europe, Japan and Canada unlikely to be hiked any time soon, the Australian dollar is likely to remain attractive for some time.

The other vital element supporting the Australian dollar has been the surge in commodity prices over the past year or so and the fact that this is showing up in a spectacular turnaround in the international trade balance from sizable deficits to what was a record monthly trade surplus in December.

With Australia’s exports dominated by bulk commodities, when the price of these commodities increases, the companies that extract the iron ore, coal and other materials enjoy what is a windfall gain in their earnings. A number of things accompany this. As foreign currency export receipts rise, these firms need to convert a large proportion of these proceeds into Australian dollars – this simply increases demand and pushes the dollar higher.

It also means that there is an income boost for the overall economy. This improves general conditions, sees a surge in tax revenue to the government and the budget position is improved. At a time when the triple-A credit rating is hanging by a thread and as a result there was concern that a credit downgrade would undermine the Australian dollar, this fortuitous but clearly good news on the budget materially reduces the chances of a credit downgrade, which improves confidence in Australia and with that the currency moves higher.

Forecasting moves in the Aussie dollar is a tough gig. That said, there are reasons to think that it is now fully valued – in other words, it is due for something of a fall.

The market is under-estimating the risks of an RBA rate cut given the low inflation climate, relatively high unemployment and record low wages. If at any stage, the market comes to price in a possible further rate cut, the dollar would come under pressure,

If, as appears likely, the commodity price rally runs out of steam (coal prices have already dropped for their recent highs) , then other key support for the Aussie dollar reverses.
It seems a track back below 75 US cents could quickly emerge, with similar or larger falls against the euro, British pound and Canadian dollar.

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As house prices fall across Australia, should we be worried for our economy?

Tue, 13 Mar 2018

This article first appeared on the Yahoo7 Finance website at this link:  https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/house-prices-fall-across-australia-worried-004714571.html 


As house prices fall across Australia, should we be worried for our economy?

Are you a home owner?

If you are in Sydney, Perth and Darwin, you are losing money at a rapid rate.

In Melbourne and Canberra, prices are topping out and there is a growing risk that prices will fall through the course of this year. If your dwelling is in Brisbane or Adelaide, you are experiencing only gentle price increases, whilst the only city of strength is Hobart, where house prices are up over 13 per cent in the past year.

The house price data, which are compiled by Corelogic, are flashing something of a warning light on the health of the housing market and therefore the overall economy. For the moment, the drop in house prices has not been sufficient to unsettle the economy, even though consumer spending has been moderate over the past year.

The importance of house prices on the health of the economy is shown in the broad trend where the cities that have the weakest housing markets tend to have the slowest growth in consumer spending and are the worst performance for employment and the unemployment rate. The cities with the strongest house prices have strong labour markets and more robust consumer spending.

Trump could cause the next global recession: here's how

Wed, 07 Mar 2018

This article first appeared on the Yahoo7 Finance website at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-cause-next-global-recession-heres-233953884.html 


Trump could cause the next global recession: here's how

The Trump trade wars threaten the global economy. This is not an exaggeration or headline grabbing claim, but an economic slump based on a US inspired global trade war is a distinct and growing possibility as it would dislocate global trade flows, production chains and bottom line economic growth.

Up until a few weeks ago, there was a strong enthusiasm for the economic policies of US President Donald Trump. Tax cuts and planned infrastructure spending were seen to be good for the US and world economies. US stocks and many around the rest of the world rose strongly, to a series of record highs. At the same time, bond yields (market interest rates) surged as the market priced in interest rate hikes and inflation risks from the ‘pro-growth’ policies. It was seen to be good news.

Very few, it seems, were worried about the consequences for US government debt and the budget deficit from this cash splash, especially when the US Federal Reserve was already on a well publicised path to hiking interest rates.

About a month or two ago, a few of the more enlightened and inquisitive analysts started to focus on the fact that the annual budget deficit under Trump was poised to explode above US$1 trillion with US government set to exceed 100 per cent of annual GDP.

A debt binge fuelled by tax cuts was a threat to the economy after the temporary sugar hit.