Is the Aussie economy about to get a surprise boost from commodities?

Sun, 30 Oct 2016  |  

This article first appeared on the Yahoo 7 Finance website at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/is-the-aussie-economy-about-to-get-a-surprise-boost-from-commodities-234122379.html 

--------------------------------------------

Is the Aussie economy about to get a surprise boost from commodities?

The commodity price cycle is turning into a major upside risk to the Australian economy into 2017. Since the low point at the start of the 2016, in US dollar terms, the iron ore price has risen 60 per cent, coking coal is up over 100 per cent, thermal coal up 45 per cent and even copper up 35 per cent and natural gas is up 10 per cent.

It is s boost that translates straight through to the bottom line profit of the mining companies, given that the Australian dollar is broadly unchanged in a broad 72 cents to 78 cents for the bulk of the year. This is despite the commodity price surge.

While most commodity prices remain well below the crazy peak levels around 2010 to 2012, the rise, if sustained or even built upon, the income flow and inflation effects will be strong.

Not only will the slump in national income be quickly reversed, but the government will be basking in ‘upside surprises’ to its revenue and will be rapidly moving to budget surplus, without lifting a policy finger to trim spending or adjust tax scales.

For mining companies and their share prices, the effect could be strong. During the last few years of dreadfully low commodity prices, many miners have trimmed or slashed their cost base. Their unit cost of production has fallen into what is now a climate of rising prices. A win-win as they say.

It is still early in this cycle, to be sure. Markets are fickle and China, the main source of demand of global commodities, is still negotiating its way through its economic problems.

There is, nonetheless a strong possibility that capital expenditure will find a floor and some previously postponed mining projects will all of a sudden be viable again. If this were to occur, it would be unlikely to show up in the next year – it is too soon.

It is an issue that if commodity prices continue to rise, it will impact mining investment in 2018 and beyond. For the RBA, the scenario is clear. The recent low inflation rate screams “rate cut”, but with commodity prices lifting this way, it may be cautious.

The commodity price upswing is certainly an issue that will always be a vital driver of a significant part of the business cycle in Australia.

Just as next to no one saw the start of the commodity boom in the early 2000s, the situation now is one where the price rises are frequently being discounted as a blip, an anomaly or a quirk based on stockpile levels or some other thing.

If China can turn its economy around, the US can lock in growth with a focus on infrastructure building and even the Eurozone, which is strengthening nicely, can sustain a more favourable growth outlook, demand for mining output will be strong and with that, prices surprisingly high.

We may not be there yet, but the recent price signals on a whole range of commodity prices suggest something is stirring.

comments powered by Disqus

THE LATEST FROM THE KOUK

How Labor lost the federal election SO badly

Thu, 07 Nov 2019

This article first appeared on the Yahoo Finance website on 20 May 2019 at this link:  https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-labor-lost-the-election-so-badly-211049089.html 

----------------------------
How Labor lost the federal election SO badly

The Coalition did not win the election, Labor lost it.

The tally since 1993 for Labor is a devastating seven losses out of nine Federal elections. By the time of the next election in 2022, Labor will have been in Opposition for 23 of the last 29 years. Miserable.

The reasons for Labor’s 2019 election loss are much more than the common analysis that Labor’s policy agenda on tax reform was a big target that voters were not willing to embrace.

Where the Labor Party also capitulated and have for some time was in a broader discussion of the economy where it failed dismally to counter the Coalition’s claims about “a strong economy”.

In what should have been political manna from heaven for Labor, the latest economic data confirmed Australia to be in a per capita recession. This devastating economic scorecard for the Coalition government was rarely if ever mentioned by Labor leader Bill Shorten and his team during the election campaign.

This was an error.

If Labor spoke of the “per capita recession” as much as the Coalition mentioned a “strong economy”, voters would have had their economic and financial uncertainties and concerns confirmed by an elevated debate on the economy based on facts.

This parlous economic position could have been cited by Labor for its reform agenda.

Why animals are a crucial part of the Australian economy

Thu, 07 Nov 2019

This article was written on 31 October 2019: It was on the Yahoo Finance website at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/animals-crucial-australian-economy-192927904.html 

------------------------------------------------------

Why animals are a crucial part of the Australian economy

Animals are a critical part of the Australian economy, either for food, companionship or entertainment.

But every month, millions of sheep, cattle, pigs, chickens, fish and other animals are bred and then killed. Most of them are killed in what we define as ‘humane’, but no doubt tens of thousands are horribly mistreated, as are a proportion of the animals we keep as pets.

Animals are slaughtered to provide food for human food consumption, to feed other animals (your cats and dogs are carnivorous) and for fertiliser.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics collects a range of data on animal slaughterings and the most recent release of the Livestock and Meat data release included the following facts.