You would be sitting pretty.
In other cities, including Canberra, Hobart, Darwin and Adelaide, where house price growth has lagged the Sydney boom conditions, a $450,000 property three years ago is approximately $35,000 to $50,000 more valuable today. Not bad for an investment you can live in.
With an even longer 10 year time frame, house prices are up 99 per cent in Darwin, 97 per cent in Melbourne, 90 per cent in Sydney, 70 per cent in Perth, 57 per cent in Adelaide and Brisbane, 54 per cent in Canberra and 38 per cent in Hobart
For the house you live in, these are quite fantastic tax-free returns setting you up for life. Over such a timeframe, the cost of waiting for a price dip to buy your property has been very costly.
For many years, there have been a range of house price pessimists who have been fanatical with their pessimism about the “looming price crash”. They have gained a high media profile as they continuously forecast a collapse in house prices, if not in 2005, then in 2010, 2013 and again today.
If it isn’t the price of the house itself, it is the level of debt, new banking rules or a glut of building that are among the issues that these extremists will lead to housing ruin. Their humiliatingly poor forecasts have not stopped the media giving them high profile coverage when they re-release their tired and failed forecasts again and again.
Unfortunately, the snake-oil from the proponents of a house price crash in Australia has been swallowed by some potential dwelling purchasers. One only has to observe the low proportion of new loans for first home buyers for some clues on how some people have been put off taking the plunge into the home ownership market.
To be sure, dwelling prices may one day fall and there have been short periods in some Australian cities where prices have dropped.
Each time this has happened, the fall has been modest and in not too many years, the falls turn out to be a mere blip on the path to long run wealth creation that flows from owning your own house and getting into the market at the earliest possible time of your life.