Take away the budget snake oil and what are you left with?

Tue, 13 May 2014  |  

Today's the day the snake oil assumptions that created the budget 'emergency' should be washed away and the true position of the long run fiscal settings will be revealed.

A vital element of the bottom line of the 2014-15 budget and the forward estimates will be the extent to which changes in the economic parameters are the driver of the return to budget surplus.

Most people seem to have forgotten that in the independently prepared PEFO document released during the election campaign in August 2013, the budget was on track to return to surplus in 2016-17. The PEFO used a range of conservative and near consensus forecasts. No serious economist took issue with the numbers underpinning the PEFO estimates.

This changed with the MYEFO in December 2013 when the Treasurer's office forced a range of unduly pessimistic forecasts onto a meek Treasury and as a result, the budget was smashed to the point where never again would Australia record a budget surplus.

Given the flow of economic news in the past six months on GDP growth, inflation and employment, it appears the parameters underpinning PEFO were pretty close to the mark and the MYEFO numbers were fudges.

The Budget today is likely to revert to the more realistic PEFO numbers which will no doubt provide a windfall for the bottom line and will lock in the return to surplus in about 2016-17 (depending on the spending plans of the government).

Perhaps the biggest fudge when the budget emergency was concocted in the MYEFO documents and carried through in the Year 10 economics work done by the Commission of Audit was an assumption that the unemployment rate would remain at 6 per cent from now through to the mid 2020s.

This change smashed revenue and created the deficits and broke with the assumption used by Peter Costello when he was Treasurer and used by Wayne Swan that the unemployment rate would revert to 5 per cent in the long run.

This 1 percentage point difference in the unemployment rate compounded the hysteria that the budget would never return to surplus.

A lift in the nominal GDP forecast will give a windfall to the bottom line of the budget as will the return to an assumption of 5 per cent for the long run equilibrium unemployment rate.

Why the MYEFO and Commission of Audit used 6 per cent is clear – to make the budget look bad.

If the return to budget surplus is largely the result of parameter changes based on a stronger economy and the use of uncooked economic parameters, the fiscal fraud of the past few years will be exposed.

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Will falling house prices trigger the next Aussie recession?

Tue, 17 Jul 2018

This article first appeared on the Yahoo 7 website at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/will-falling-house-prices-trigger-next-aussie-recession-000039851.html

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 Will falling house prices trigger the next Aussie recession?

House prices are falling, auction clearance rates continue to drop and there is a such sharp lift in the number of properties for sale that, for the moment, no one is willing to buy at the given asking price.

Potential house buyers who have held off taking the plunge in the hope of falling prices seem to be staying away, perhaps hoping for further price falls. But also influential factors forcing buyers away is the extra difficulty getting loans approved as banks tighten credit standards, then there are concerns about job security and associated awareness of probable cash flow difficulties given the weakness in wages growth. It is remarkably obvious that house prices will continue to fall and this poses a range of risks to the economy.

Research from a range of analysts, including at the Reserve Bank of Australia, show a direct link between changes in housing wealth and consumer spending. This means that when wealth is increasing on the back of rising house prices, consumer spending is stronger.

This was evident in Sydney and Melbourne, in particular, when house prices in those two cities were booming in the two or three years up to the middle to latter part of 2017. Retail spending was also strong. Looking at the downside, in Perth where house prices have fallen by more than 10 per cent since early 2015, consumer spending has been particularly weak.

Punters point to by-election troubles for Labor

Mon, 16 Jul 2018

 

If the flow of punter’s money is any guide, Labor are in for a very rough time on Sublime-Saturday on 28 July when there are five by-elections around Australia.

In the three seats where the results are not a forgone conclusion, the flow of money on Liberal candidates over the last few days has been very strong.

The Liberal Party are now favourites to win Braddon and Longman and in Mayo, Liberal candidate Georgina Downer has firmed from $4.20 into $2.75.

If the punters are right, Sublime-Saturday would see Labor lose Braddon and Longman and could see Liberal’s sneak back in Mayo.

If so, it would be odds on that Prime Minister Turnbull would go to the polls as soon as possible, not only to take advantage of the by-election fallout, but, from a different angle, go before the housing market and the economy really hit the wall, probably in late 2018 or 2019.

BRADDON

Liberals $1.70 (was $2.25)
Labor $2.05 (was $1.65)

MAYO

Liberals $2.75 (was $4.20)
Centre Alliance $1.35 (was $1.15)

LONGMAN

Liberals $1.50 (was $2.00)
Labor $2.50 (was $1.85)