Buying your first house? Just do it!

Wed, 17 Jun 2015  |  

With housing remaining the hot topic for all to discuss, I thought it useful to publish a further extract from my book, Myth Busting Economics.

If you want to buy the book, click here. https://www.booktopia.com.au/search.ep?keywords=koukoulas&productType=917504 

It is always a good time to buy a house that you want to live in. Here’s why:

EXTRACT FROM MYTH BUSTING ECONOMICS

While buying a house to live in has proven to be a wonderful source of wealth creation over many decades, this seems to play only a minor part in most people’s desire to borrow money and buy their own home.

The non-financial or psychic benefits are vitally important. Owning a house gives certainty as to where you will live over the long term, with no pesky landlord around to end your lease if you are a renter. Homeowners can do whatever they want to their house, unlike renters, who are constrained by the conditions of the lease. As an owner, you can paint it whatever colour you wish, spend money on renovations making it a more pleasant house to live in, and enjoy the benefits of setting up a garden and watching it grow as the years pass by. You can keep a pet, which is an option denied to many renters through the rental conditions set by most landlords. It is important to realise, as many people do, that in addition to the life-enhancing benefits of renovations to the kitchen, the outdoor living area, the lovely garden and the like, these improvements add value to your housing asset in advance of the day the house is sold and those gains are realised. And, quite incredibly, those gains are tax free.

In addition to the flexibility and other satisfactions associated with home ownership, the financial aspects of stepping up and buying a house are critically important.

After 20 years of renting, you have no housing assets at all. It is as simple as that. But after 20 years of owning and maintaining a mortgage, you have a valuable asset, even on the very conservative assumption that prices do not rise much over time. Certainly it is generally more expensive to buy a house than to rent (this is covered further in the pages ahead), but the benefits of having been forced to save to buy the house and then of 20 years of owning this asset are clear.

There is probably no ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ time to buy a house to live in, if you are doing it for the right reasons and are prudent in the financial commitment you make when deciding to buy. For every warning that house prices are set to fall, so hold off a while before buying, there are stories of missed opportunities as house prices unexpectedly but inexorably move higher. Holding off a house purchase on the expectation that prices will fall is fraught with financial danger.

If you are wrong and while you are waiting house prices actually increase even an extra 5 per cent on a $600 000 property, that attempt to be too clever by half and pick the market timing has cost you $30 000 of after-tax money. If, on the other hand, you had stepped up, bought the house and prices fell 5 per cent (often seen as a worst- case scenario), who cares! It is of little relevance given you are not about to sell it to lock in that loss. You are living in your house and enjoying it. Over the next 10 or 15 years or more, prices will probably move higher, and in that time you will have paid off some of the debt and no doubt undertaken improvements to your house and made it a nicer place to live. A one-off 5 per cent price fall will be swamped by these long-run influences.

And over, say, a 10-year period, house prices rarely fall. So a price dip here or there should not be an issue, even if you bought the house near the top of the market. You bought it to live in and you plan to stay there for many years. In other words, purchasing a house for you to live in should be—must be—a long-term commitment. Paying ‘too much’ now probably won’t matter much, if at all, even if annual house price gains over the next decade are moderate. Even annual house price gains of only 3 per cent, roughly half of the average price increases of the past three decades, will provide a financial benefit to you. It is difficult to imagine that anyone who bought an average house anywhere in Australia 10 or more years ago has lost money. They simply haven’t.

If you see a house you like and can afford it, just buy it and don’t hang around hoping for a price fall that probably will not happen.
There are lots of other issues often overlooked when weighing up whether to buy or to rent. The owner of a house has to pay local council rates and insurance, and cover the cost of repairs and maintenance for the hot-water system, carpets, painting, roof leaks, body corporate fees and the like. Most of these costs are part of the depreciation of the physical asset — the house — and are estimated to be around 2.5 to 3 per cent per year of the value of the house (excluding land). Even on a relatively inexpensive house this depreciation is around $5000 a year, and obviously it will be much higher for bigger and better houses. A house where the bricks, mortar, paint and fittings cost $400 000, for example, depreciates by around $10 000 a year, which cost is borne by the owner and not a renter.

Renters, while exposed to uncertainty about tenure, ‘dead money’ rent payments, the lack of picture hooks in the wall and living with that purple feature wall, at least do not have these costs to cover. They can also move house without the huge costs faced by a house owner, who must cough up the vast amounts required for stamp duty, real estate agent selling fees, advertising, legal fees and the like. Renters never have these expenses to worry about when they move.

Most people in Australia want to buy their own home. It seems they reckon the financial returns are reasonable to good over the longer run, and then there are those non-financial aspects that are so vitally important for wellbeing and enjoyment of life.

Even a nice garden can add $50 000 and more to the value of a house, although the cost of establishing one is well short of that amount. And not only is there a financial benefit, but you get to enjoy the garden every day you live there.

Many years of high house price growth have created a lot of wealth for those who bought their house 10, 15 or 20 and more years ago. For them, house price increases are nothing but good news.

That is all well and good for those who bought their house 10 or 20 years ago, but the current level of house prices has seen a lot of young people and other first-home buyers priced out of the housing market. There is a requirement for a large deposit, normally 20 per cent. For dwelling prices in the $300 000, $400 000 and $500 000 brackets, this requires a huge saving effort. Without the 20 per cent deposit, the banks will insist on very expensive mortgage insurance or will simply not grant the loan. Added to that 20 per cent deposit is the inevitably high debt level for the mortgage to cover the remaining 80 per cent or so of the purchase price.

The current high prices confirm that it is tough, financially, to meet all of the monetary requirements in order to get your foot in the door of the housing market.

The fundamental drivers of house prices at the moment suggest a period of more moderate price increases or even a period when house prices move more or less sideways for an extended time. Nevertheless, there are various scenarios that could see house prices fall.

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THE LATEST FROM THE KOUK

Will falling house prices trigger the next Aussie recession?

Tue, 17 Jul 2018

This article first appeared on the Yahoo 7 website at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/will-falling-house-prices-trigger-next-aussie-recession-000039851.html

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 Will falling house prices trigger the next Aussie recession?

House prices are falling, auction clearance rates continue to drop and there is a such sharp lift in the number of properties for sale that, for the moment, no one is willing to buy at the given asking price.

Potential house buyers who have held off taking the plunge in the hope of falling prices seem to be staying away, perhaps hoping for further price falls. But also influential factors forcing buyers away is the extra difficulty getting loans approved as banks tighten credit standards, then there are concerns about job security and associated awareness of probable cash flow difficulties given the weakness in wages growth. It is remarkably obvious that house prices will continue to fall and this poses a range of risks to the economy.

Research from a range of analysts, including at the Reserve Bank of Australia, show a direct link between changes in housing wealth and consumer spending. This means that when wealth is increasing on the back of rising house prices, consumer spending is stronger.

This was evident in Sydney and Melbourne, in particular, when house prices in those two cities were booming in the two or three years up to the middle to latter part of 2017. Retail spending was also strong. Looking at the downside, in Perth where house prices have fallen by more than 10 per cent since early 2015, consumer spending has been particularly weak.

Punters point to by-election troubles for Labor

Mon, 16 Jul 2018

 

If the flow of punter’s money is any guide, Labor are in for a very rough time on Sublime-Saturday on 28 July when there are five by-elections around Australia.

In the three seats where the results are not a forgone conclusion, the flow of money on Liberal candidates over the last few days has been very strong.

The Liberal Party are now favourites to win Braddon and Longman and in Mayo, Liberal candidate Georgina Downer has firmed from $4.20 into $2.75.

If the punters are right, Sublime-Saturday would see Labor lose Braddon and Longman and could see Liberal’s sneak back in Mayo.

If so, it would be odds on that Prime Minister Turnbull would go to the polls as soon as possible, not only to take advantage of the by-election fallout, but, from a different angle, go before the housing market and the economy really hit the wall, probably in late 2018 or 2019.

BRADDON

Liberals $1.70 (was $2.25)
Labor $2.05 (was $1.65)

MAYO

Liberals $2.75 (was $4.20)
Centre Alliance $1.35 (was $1.15)

LONGMAN

Liberals $1.50 (was $2.00)
Labor $2.50 (was $1.85)