Blog

Fri, 08 Sep 2017  |  

This article first appeared on the Yahoo7 Finance website at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/1714473-004126949.html 

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Why the RBA refuses to cut rates

The forecasting record of the Reserve Bank of Australia is poor, but that has not stopped it relying on its forecasts, rather than hard data, when setting monetary policy.

In the past year where interest rates have been left unchanged at a level that is amongst the highest in the industrialised world, the RBA has been banking on its forecasts for stronger economic growth, a lift in wages and rising inflation to validate its failure to join the rest of the world with ultra low interest rates.

There are a couple of consequences of this approach from the RBA.

Importantly, despite its status, the RBA is made up or mortals. Sometimes its forecasts are wrong. And in recent years, the RBA forecasting record has been wide of the mark on growth, wages and inflation.

As the data has unfolded through the course of the past year or so, contrary to the rosy outlook from the RBA, economic sluggishness remains the order of the day.

Thu, 07 Sep 2017  |  

The Dun & Bradstreet Business Expectation survey confirmed a mixed picture for the economy.

The full report is at this link https://dnb.com.au/article-bex-q4-2017-final.html#.WbBm1zOB24k 

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Growth prospects remain mixed across the country

Uncertain economic conditions continue to impact optimism across the Australian business landscape, with sentiment softening for the final quarter of 2017. In Dun & Bradstreet's August Business Expectations Survey, businesses predicted lower sales, employment and selling prices for the December quarter, despite a general pick-up in business activity during the June quarter. However, capital investment and profits are tipped to rise.

Wed, 06 Sep 2017  |  

This article first appeared on the Yahoo7 Finance website at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/five-ways-grow-wealth-230647235.html 

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5 ways to grow wealth

Luck certainly helps some people get wealthy.

For the rest of us, careful planning and an understanding of markets, investing strategies, economics and finance are vital aspects of going down the path of wealth creation.

There are many aspects to wealth creation and the list below covers just five of those. These are the five characteristics or strategies usually evident in most wealthy people and if you follow them throughout your life, you will probably have more wealth than those who don’t.

Buy a house to live in

Owning your own house to live in is the best way to both meet the need for a roof over your head and to accumulate wealth. House prices were high 30, 20 and 10 years ago. They still are. Postponing the decision to buy a house has proven to be a financial disaster in just about every year since house price records started in the 1800s. Mortgage repayments are not only ‘forced savings’ but even with modest price growth, on such a big asset the wealth gains over a long time frame (think well over 10 years) are substantial. Once you build some equity and wealth in your own house, it can be used, in time, to finance other wealth creating investments.

Mon, 21 Aug 2017  |  

This article first appeared on The Adelaide Review site at this link: https://adelaidereview.com.au/opinion/politics/paying-fair-share/ 

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Paying Their Fair Share

It’s the age-old question: why don’t governments deliver policies that are good for the electorate? Well, the answers are numerous.

Politics and policymaking should be simple. After all, being in government and delivering what voters want — making them happy in other words — and increasing the chances of re-election seems to be the proverbial win-win scenario.

Which begs the question, why don’t political parties do it?

Why don’t they deliver policies that are good for the electorate and good for their re-election chances?

Let’s cut to what the voters, in general, want.

A policy framework where each person who wants a job gets a job is key. In addition, access to quality and affordable health care and education, from kindergarten to university to trades training is fundamental. There are other issues that are basic, simple and fair.

Voters want the government to provide aged-care services that treat the older members of society with dignity. We want decent infrastructure, especially pubic transport and roads. We want people who are doing it tough to be supported by a welfare safety net — a decent rate of pension, unemployment benefits and disability support.

So far, so good.

Sun, 20 Aug 2017  |  

This article first appeared on The New Daily website at this link: https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2017/08/16/stephen-koukoulas-unemployment/ 

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Australia has given up on solving unemployment

 It is a sad state of affairs to realise that the current crop of Australian policy-makers have effectively given up on reducing unemployment.

Treasury reckons that the lowest the unemployment rate can go without there being a wages and inflation breakout is around 5.25 per cent.

The Reserve Bank of Australia notes something similar, forecasting that even when the economy is growing strongly at an above-trend pace, the unemployment rate will hover between 5 and 6 per cent.
The current unemployment rate is 5.6 per cent or some 728,100 people – enough to fill the Melbourne Cricket Ground about seven times.

Given the Treasury and RBA estimates, it looks like Australia will never see fewer than about 700,000 people unemployed – no matter what kind of improvement we see in the latest jobless figures on Thursday.
It seems to be a peculiarly Australian issue. In the US, the unemployment rate is 4.3 per cent, in the UK it is 4.5 per cent, in Japan it is 2.8 per cent while in Germany, the unemployment rate is 3.9 per cent. And none of these countries is experiencing a wage/inflation problem. Indeed, even with the very low unemployment rate in Japan, wages are actually falling.

Wed, 16 Aug 2017  |  

This article first appeared on the Yahoo7 Finance at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/1607453-054918623.html 

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Are you paying more or less in 2017?

When it comes to questions of cost of living, Australians are not all that good at identifying where their household budgets are being stretched or where they are making savings.

In its most recent survey, polling company Essential Research, asked voters whether “compared to two or three years ago, is your household paying more or less for the following” and thereafter it listed 10 items.  Since the end of 2014, two and a half years ago, the overall consumer price index has risen by 3.8 per cent, a modest overall gain over that time.

The respondents were spot on when it came to judging electricity and gas prices. A total of 84 per cent said that they were paying “a lot more or a little more” for their power. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, since the end of 2014, electricity prices have in fact risen 7.1 per cent.In terms of insurance costs, 69 per cent indicated that they were paying more, a figure confirmed by the ABS with an 11.6 per cent rise since the end of 2014.

For medical and dental costs, 63 per cent indicated they were paying more, with just 3 per cent saying they were paying less. The ABS data indicate that medical, dental and hospital costs have risen a substantial 16.9 per cent in just two and a half years.

These results are not surprising.

Consumers were, however, wide of the mark when it came to some other items.

Fri, 11 Aug 2017  |  

The RBA appeared before the House of Representatives Economics Committee today.

Here are some of the things its officials said:

Economic growth is likely to remain below trend for a couple of years.

Inflation is going to remains below the mid-point of its target till beyond the forecast horizon.

The unemployment rate is going to remain above the level associated with full-employment until at least the end of the forecast horizon.

Wages growth is likely to remain well below the long run average for many years, a point which will crimp household spending and bottom line GDP growth.

Yet, and here's the ZINGER

The next move in interest rates is likely to be up!

Whacko Jacko! 

 

 

Thu, 10 Aug 2017  |  

Kouk Polling – a subsidiary of Market Economics – conducted an informal, unscientific, voluntary Twitter poll to test the support for the question of marriage equality in Australia.

The poll, which was conducted over the 24 hours to 5.30pm, 10 August 2017, asked the question:

Should the Marriage Act be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry?

Yes

No

Of the 6,948 people who voted, 92 per cent said “yes”, with 8 per cent voting “no”.

Even with a margin of error in the poll of 41 per cent, the “yes” vote would carry.

Thu, 10 Aug 2017  |  

This article first appeared on the Yahoo7 Finance web site at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/1586030-233201747.html 

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Why are we so pessimistic?

The optimism in the business sector that is evident in the Dun & Bradstreet and NAB business surveys has failed to translate to stronger economic activity, lower unemployment or any clear sign that the economy is doing well.

It goes to show that the business sector is just one part of the economy – an important one to be sure, but just one cog in the system. There is no doubt that it is important for the business sector to do well. But in isolation, high levels of business optimism are not enough to get economic growth to an above trend pace, the unemployment rate down and living standards higher.

To understand why the economy remains problematic, why the budget is still in large deficit and why the RBA has set interest rates at record lows, despite buoyant levels of business confidence, one only has to look at consumers.
Consumer sentiment is languishing in the doldrums and is a factor holding back household consumption spending.

The Westpac – Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment continues to show more pessimists than optimists, a position that has been evident for nine months. This extended period of pessimism is rare. The last time consumers were pessimistic for such a duration was in 2008, as the global economy plunged into the deepest recession since the 1930s.

When consumers are pessimistic, they tend to curtail spending growth. There is caution about running down savings or adding to debt because weak sentiment is usually associated with a lack of job security, weak incomes growth and cost of living pressures.
These dynamics are at play in the economy tight now.

Thu, 03 Aug 2017  |  

This article first appeared on the Yahoo7 Finance website at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/rates-fall-even-055840162.html 

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Could rates fall even further?

There’s no way the Reserve Bank of Australia will increase official interest rates while the economy remains in its current rut.

Australia’s economic fundamentals are quite problematic but this has not stopped some analysts from ramping up speculation about interest rate hikes, perhaps before the end of the year. More interesting, the money markets are pricing in higher interest rates over the next 12 to 18 months.

The reason why this is so misguided and misreads the current status of the economy is straight-forward. Growth, inflation and wages growth is low and the unemployment rate is high. It is worth taking a step back to see how the economy was performing the last time the RBA started an interest rate hiking cycle. That was back in October 2009, when the RBA increased the cash rate from 3.0 per cent to 3.25 per cent as the economy picked up steam as the impact of the global crisis faded.

In the six months prior to that hike in 2009, the unemployment rate hovered around 4.2 to 4.3 per cent and at the same time, annual wages growth was locked between 3 and 4 per cent.

THE LATEST FROM THE KOUK

Why Australians have lost $300 Billion this year

Mon, 22 Oct 2018

This article first appeared on the Yahoo 7 website at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/3665708-004156966.html 

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Why Australians have lost $300 Billion this year

The total wealth of Australians has dropped by close to $300 billion since the start of 2018.

How much of that is yours?

The fall in house prices and now the slump in the stock market is undermining the wealth of Australian householders.

This is an important trend given the solid link between the change in wealth and household spending. Numerous studies show that when wealth increases, growth in household spending is faster than it would otherwise be. It appears that householders view their extra wealth in a manner that sees them lower their other savings or use that wealth as collateral for additional borrowing fund extra consumption. They may even ‘cash in’ their extra wealth and use those gains to fund additional spending.

When they observe falling wealth, experience weak wages growth and realise their savings rates are perilously low, they will adjust their spending – down.

Labor almost home, not quite hosed

Mon, 22 Oct 2018

The extraordinary vote in the Wentworth by election, with the 18 or 19 per cent swing against the Liberal Party, presents further evidence that the Morrison government is set to lose the next general election.

There is nothing particularly new in this with the major nation-wide polls showing the Liberal Party a hefty 6 to 10 points behind Labor.

The election is unlikely to be held before May 2019, which is a long 7 months away. A lot can happen in that time but for the Liberal Party to get competitive, but for this to happen there needs to be a run of extraordinary developments.

In the aftermath of the Wentworth by election, the betting markets saw Labor’s odds shorten.

While the odds vary from betting agency to betting agency, the best available odds at the time of writing was $1.25 for Labor and $4.00 for the Coalition.

If, as most now seem to suggest, Labor is ‘across the line’, $1.25 is a great 25 per cent, tax free return for 7 months ‘investment’. Yet, punters are not quite so sure and seem to be holding off the big bets just in case something out of the ordinary happens.

While some segments of the economy look quite good, at least on face value – note the unemployment rate and GDP – others that probably matter more to voters – husong, share prices, wages and other high-frewquency cost of living issues are all looking rather parlous. And none of these are likely to change soon.

There is an old saying for punters – odds on, look on. But $1.25 for Labor seem great value.