Blog

Wed, 30 Apr 2014  |  

The budget is fast approaching and the Abbott government is flagging a deficit reduction levy (tax) and / or an increase in personal income taxes as it works furiously to return the budget to surplus.

This got me thinking about high taxes and which side of politics resorts to tax revenue in its budgetary planning.

Here, in order, are the highest tax to GDP ratios that have been recorded. Here are the Top 10.

Wed, 30 Apr 2014  |  

This article first appeared on 17 May 2013, at my old blog. In the lead into the budget, I thought it worth circulating again.

The Howard government went to capital markets on no fewer than 400 occasions to borrow money.

Between March 1996 and November 2007, there were 135 lines of bonds that were taken to market in various bond tenders which were issued with a face value of $51 billion, while there were over 280 T-Note tenders with a face value of over $220 billion.

Indeed, in the three months before the November 2007 election, the Howard government went to the bond market on 8 separate occasions to borrow money with a series of bond tenders. Even during the election campaign, just 11 days from polling day, it borrowed an additional $300 million in bond tender number 236. In the final term of the Howard government, from October 2004 to November 2007, there were 43 bond tenders or times the government borrowed money.

Tue, 29 Apr 2014  |  

If Treasurer Joe Hockey was smart, he would be starting to link the fiscal tightening that seems to be in store in the budget to the current low interest rate environment and he would suggest the fiscal austerity about to be unleashed is a deliberate policy effort to try to drive the Australian dollar lower.

There is no doubt that there is a trade off between fiscal and monetary policy. Whenever fiscal settings are tightened, interest rates can be held lower than they would otherwise be and vice versa. The current low level of interest rates owes something to the tightening in budget policy over the last couple of years.

Mon, 28 Apr 2014  |  

This article first appeared in Business Spectator on 29 October 2013:

https://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/10/29/climate/topsy-turvy-approach-climate-change

The topsy turvy approach to climate change

The crux of Tony Abbott's Direct Action policy on climate change is having the government pay the worst polluters a fee as an inducement for them to reduce or stop their carbon emissions.

It is an odd policy, to be sure, and without any precedent – which means it is risky in terms of cost and effectiveness.

As Fairfax Media revealed yesterday, only 5.5 per cent of the 35 economists surveyed were in favour of the Direct Action approach to reducing carbon emissions versus 86 per cent in favour of a carbon price or emissions trading system. The only surprise in these findings was that 5.5 per cent (two respondents) were in favour of government payments to polluters.

Sun, 27 Apr 2014  |  

There is a story doing the rounds this morning that "families could be hit with a debt tax to help pay off the budget deficit".

All that such a debt tax imposed by the government to reduce governement debt and deficit would do is transfer household savings from the private sector (where savings fall and / or debt increases) to the government sector (where debt falls). $10 billion of revenue from the tax, for example, would reduce household savings by that amount whilst simultaneously reducing governemnt debt by that amount, less the red tape and administration costs of course.

The net effect on national savings, which is the thing that matters to all sensible macroeconomists, is a big fat zero.

Wed, 23 Apr 2014  |  

It would be a wild exaggeration to say that Australia has an inflation problem, but the March quarter CPI highlighted the fact that the strength of the domestic economy is spilling over into a somewhat uncomfortable acceleration in the inflation rate.

While the March quarter inflation rates came in under market expectations (which says more about those expectations than it does about the actual hard data), inflation is moving higher.

Whether it is the annual headline inflation rate – which has risen from a low of 1.2 per cent in the June quarter 2012 to 2.9 per cent now – or the underlying inflation rate – which has risen from a low of 1.9 per cent to 2.7 per cent now – the RBA can no longer sit on a record low cash rate of 2.5 per cent and be confident that a further acceleration in the inflation rate wont happen.

Sun, 20 Apr 2014  |  

This article first appeared in the April edition of the Melbourne Review. See melbournereview.com.au

Australia is in the midst of a quite startling export boom. What is exciting and positive for Australia's longer run growth prospects is that the transition of the economy towards exports has much further to run.

The surge in exports and the prospects for yet further growth is largely the result of the once in 100 years mining investment frenzy over the past decade. Capacity in the mining sector has risen massively as the mining companies built the infrastructure needed to extract and transport the raw materials to the export markets, mainly in China and elsewhere in Asia.

Much has been written and discussed the fall away in mining investment. That is perhaps one of the most obvious aspects of the change in the structure of the economy over the next few years and nothing can or should be done to arrest that inevitable fall.

Sat, 19 Apr 2014  |  

This article first appeared on The Drum on 16 April 2014. I wrote it for Per Capita, at per capita.org.au

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-16/koukoulas-its-time-to-set-an-unemployment-target/5393386

One yawning gap in the economic debate in Australia is the lack of a target for the unemployment rate.

Just last week, with the release of a better than expected unemployment result, the commentary was focused on the favourable labour market news sparking speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia would soon need to increase interest rates as future growth drove the unemployment rate lower.

The business cycles over the past few decades suggest that politicians and policymakers are happy to claim "full employment" whenever the unemployment rate is about 5 per cent. Anything less and there are skills shortages and wage pressures building and it is left to the RBA to hike interest rates to cool demand for workers.

Tue, 15 Apr 2014  |  

Today the RPData series showed house prices rising 0.4 per cent in the first half of April after a record monthly rise of 2.3 per cent in March. Double-digit annual house price gains are now the norm and there are growing risks that any further inflation in house prices will threaten the stability of markets and with that, the economy.

Today also, the RBA published the minutes from the April Board meeting and made just one reference to house prices. It was a corn-ball factual comment that "Housing market conditions remained strong, with housing prices rising in March to be 10½ per cent higher over the year on a nationwide basis".
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There was no discussion of whether this growth in house prices was a concern, or normal or whether, in the RBA's view, it posed a threat to financial stability.

Mon, 14 Apr 2014  |  

It is trite to say that not all markets move in straight lines up or down, but in the case of the Australian dollar, the rally from below 0.9000 a few months ago to around 0.9400 at present has been quite powerful...and profitable.

In February, the call was for the AUD to move to parity over a medium term time frame and it is important to highlight that this bullish structural view still holds. By late 2014 and into 2015, the AUD is likely to be at parity or higher. https://thekouk.com/blog/aud-parity-beckons.html#.U0tlLca27wI

But what is somewhat disconcerting for that bullish view is a turn in market and economist sentiment. There are an increasing number of people who have shifting from calling the AUD lower from when it was below 0.9000 and are now bullish. It is unlikely their clients who shorted the AUD below 0.9000 are all that thrilled having been hit hard with the 5 per cent appreciation in the AUD.

THE LATEST FROM THE KOUK

The weak economy is turning higher

Mon, 15 Jul 2019

This article first appeared on the Yahoo Finance web site at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/just-how-weak-australia-strong-economy-213520159.html 

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The weak economy is turning higher

In the space of a couple of months, the rhetoric on the economy has gone from strong to weak.

Curiously, both assessments are wrong.

The economy was actually weak during the first half of 2019 and, if the leading indicators are correct, late 2019 and 2020 should see a decent pick up in economic activity.

It is not clear what has caused this error of judgment and the about face from so many commentators and economists, including importantly the Reserve Bank. A level-headed, unbiased look at economic data confirms that in late 2018 and the first half of 2019, the economy was in trouble. There were three straight quarters of falling GDP per capita, house prices were diving at an alarming rate, there was a rise in unemployment, wages growth remained tepid and low inflation persisted.

These are not the dynamics of a “strong” economy.

Only now, in the rear view mirror look at the economy, are these poor indicators gaining favour, leading to generalised economic gloom.

Australia needs ‘fiscal stimulus', but what does that actually mean?

Wed, 10 Jul 2019

This article first appeared on the Yahoo Finance website at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/australia-needs-fiscal-stimulus-but-what-does-that-actually-mean-203000918.html 

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Australia needs ‘fiscal stimulus', but what does that actually mean?

With the economy down in the dumps and the per capita recession now extending to nine months, there is a frenzied call for the government to implement some spending and tax policies to stem the bleeding.

The calls are coming from economists, journalists, the RBA Governor and a bevy of commentators who are demanding a fiscal policy boost from the government to support economic growth. This is all fine and there is a strong case for policy makers to work together to do something to lift the pace of economic expansion.

But there is a problem with the generic “fiscal policy stimulus” demand given that none of the calls have been accompanied by even vague details of what the stimulus means and the areas of spending that should be ramped up or what taxes should be changed.

Sure, there is a suggestion of more spending on ‘infrastructure’ but that is never defined or specified.