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Sun, 27 Apr 2014  |  

There is a story doing the rounds this morning that "families could be hit with a debt tax to help pay off the budget deficit".

All that such a debt tax imposed by the government to reduce governement debt and deficit would do is transfer household savings from the private sector (where savings fall and / or debt increases) to the government sector (where debt falls). $10 billion of revenue from the tax, for example, would reduce household savings by that amount whilst simultaneously reducing governemnt debt by that amount, less the red tape and administration costs of course.

The net effect on national savings, which is the thing that matters to all sensible macroeconomists, is a big fat zero.

Wed, 23 Apr 2014  |  

It would be a wild exaggeration to say that Australia has an inflation problem, but the March quarter CPI highlighted the fact that the strength of the domestic economy is spilling over into a somewhat uncomfortable acceleration in the inflation rate.

While the March quarter inflation rates came in under market expectations (which says more about those expectations than it does about the actual hard data), inflation is moving higher.

Whether it is the annual headline inflation rate – which has risen from a low of 1.2 per cent in the June quarter 2012 to 2.9 per cent now – or the underlying inflation rate – which has risen from a low of 1.9 per cent to 2.7 per cent now – the RBA can no longer sit on a record low cash rate of 2.5 per cent and be confident that a further acceleration in the inflation rate wont happen.

Sun, 20 Apr 2014  |  

This article first appeared in the April edition of the Melbourne Review. See melbournereview.com.au

Australia is in the midst of a quite startling export boom. What is exciting and positive for Australia's longer run growth prospects is that the transition of the economy towards exports has much further to run.

The surge in exports and the prospects for yet further growth is largely the result of the once in 100 years mining investment frenzy over the past decade. Capacity in the mining sector has risen massively as the mining companies built the infrastructure needed to extract and transport the raw materials to the export markets, mainly in China and elsewhere in Asia.

Much has been written and discussed the fall away in mining investment. That is perhaps one of the most obvious aspects of the change in the structure of the economy over the next few years and nothing can or should be done to arrest that inevitable fall.

Sat, 19 Apr 2014  |  

This article first appeared on The Drum on 16 April 2014. I wrote it for Per Capita, at per capita.org.au

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-16/koukoulas-its-time-to-set-an-unemployment-target/5393386

One yawning gap in the economic debate in Australia is the lack of a target for the unemployment rate.

Just last week, with the release of a better than expected unemployment result, the commentary was focused on the favourable labour market news sparking speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia would soon need to increase interest rates as future growth drove the unemployment rate lower.

The business cycles over the past few decades suggest that politicians and policymakers are happy to claim "full employment" whenever the unemployment rate is about 5 per cent. Anything less and there are skills shortages and wage pressures building and it is left to the RBA to hike interest rates to cool demand for workers.

Tue, 15 Apr 2014  |  

Today the RPData series showed house prices rising 0.4 per cent in the first half of April after a record monthly rise of 2.3 per cent in March. Double-digit annual house price gains are now the norm and there are growing risks that any further inflation in house prices will threaten the stability of markets and with that, the economy.

Today also, the RBA published the minutes from the April Board meeting and made just one reference to house prices. It was a corn-ball factual comment that "Housing market conditions remained strong, with housing prices rising in March to be 10½ per cent higher over the year on a nationwide basis".
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There was no discussion of whether this growth in house prices was a concern, or normal or whether, in the RBA's view, it posed a threat to financial stability.

Mon, 14 Apr 2014  |  

It is trite to say that not all markets move in straight lines up or down, but in the case of the Australian dollar, the rally from below 0.9000 a few months ago to around 0.9400 at present has been quite powerful...and profitable.

In February, the call was for the AUD to move to parity over a medium term time frame and it is important to highlight that this bullish structural view still holds. By late 2014 and into 2015, the AUD is likely to be at parity or higher. https://thekouk.com/blog/aud-parity-beckons.html#.U0tlLca27wI

But what is somewhat disconcerting for that bullish view is a turn in market and economist sentiment. There are an increasing number of people who have shifting from calling the AUD lower from when it was below 0.9000 and are now bullish. It is unlikely their clients who shorted the AUD below 0.9000 are all that thrilled having been hit hard with the 5 per cent appreciation in the AUD.

Fri, 11 Apr 2014  |  

The MYEFO fudges imposed on a weak and shell-shocked Treasury by Treasurer Joe Hockey and his office back in December are being shown up in the run of recent data.

This time, it is employment.

The MYEFO forecasts from Mr Hockey were for employment to rise by 0.75 per cent over the year to the June quarter 2014. This was 0.25 per cent lower than the employment growth forecast that was published in the independently prepared PEFO in August. That 0.25 per cent, as will be clear, is about 30,000 jobs and in budget terms, a lot of money.

The ABS released the March labour force data yesterday and those numbers confirmed what most sober analysis was suggesting and that is a solid pick up in employment growth in recent months is well underway as the overall rate of economic growth accelerates.

The most recent labour force data mean that for the MYEFO employment forecast to be correct, monthly employment over April, May and June has to average growth of a puny 5,000. This may be correct, but it's very unlikely. An average of 29,000 jobs were added over the last three months.

Given the momentum in economic growth, the rise in job advertisements and other labour market forward indicators, it is not unreasonable to expect average monthly employment increases of, conservatively, 15,000 a month over the next three months. If this is what happens, then the PEFO forecast of 1 per cent employment growth will prevail and the whole scam of cooking the books in MYEFO will be further exposed.

If the job creation of the March quarter is repeated in the June quarter, then annual employment growth will be nearer 1.25 per cent.

The end point is that the MYEFO numbers were the result of the new Treasurer, Mr Hockey, trying to make a lousy political point that had little to do with the true position of the economy.

The economy is doing well, really well in fact and we all should be delighted that jobs growth is picking up and the unemployment rate is ticking down. This is what, in my view, economic policy is all about. It is a pity that Mr Hockey prefers to play the petty debt and deficit political game.

Thu, 10 Apr 2014  |  

Not surprisingly, the move to an above trend growth rate for the economy over the past half year or so is now generating a decent rate of employment growth. What's more, it now appears that the unemployment rate has peaked and that by this time next year, the unemployment rate will likely be around 5.5 per cent, perhaps a little less.

Over the three months of the March quarter, employment has increased by 88,000, to register the largest quarterly increase since the March quarter 2012.

Tue, 08 Apr 2014  |  

The favourable news on the economy is unrelenting.

After the flood of extremely positive news last week, there has been further reinforcement of the clear upswing in a couple of series released in the last day and a bit.

Yesterday saw the number of job advertisements, as measured by the ANZ, lock in five straight months of increase in trend terms. There is now no doubt that employment growth will also lift in the months ahead and the unemployment rate will start to fall very soon.

Sun, 06 Apr 2014  |  

 

This article, written on behalf of Per Capita, first appeared on The Drum website:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-03/koukoulas-our-rolls-royce-budget-can-handle-a-flat-tyre/5363402

Australia is in a fine budget position and the deficit isn't nearly as big an issue as some politicians would have you believe. Just ask the credit rating agencies, writes Stephen Koukoulas.

The budget debate in Australia is so pathetically inane that the fiscal blame game has reached a point where neither side of politics wants to take responsibility for Australia's triple-A rated fiscal settings.

This perverse situation shows up with the notion that debt and deficit are political poison rather than the medicine that, when used wisely, has delivered spectacular wealth-creating returns for the economy.

THE LATEST FROM THE KOUK

Will falling house prices trigger the next Aussie recession?

Tue, 17 Jul 2018

This article first appeared on the Yahoo 7 website at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/will-falling-house-prices-trigger-next-aussie-recession-000039851.html

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 Will falling house prices trigger the next Aussie recession?

House prices are falling, auction clearance rates continue to drop and there is a such sharp lift in the number of properties for sale that, for the moment, no one is willing to buy at the given asking price.

Potential house buyers who have held off taking the plunge in the hope of falling prices seem to be staying away, perhaps hoping for further price falls. But also influential factors forcing buyers away is the extra difficulty getting loans approved as banks tighten credit standards, then there are concerns about job security and associated awareness of probable cash flow difficulties given the weakness in wages growth. It is remarkably obvious that house prices will continue to fall and this poses a range of risks to the economy.

Research from a range of analysts, including at the Reserve Bank of Australia, show a direct link between changes in housing wealth and consumer spending. This means that when wealth is increasing on the back of rising house prices, consumer spending is stronger.

This was evident in Sydney and Melbourne, in particular, when house prices in those two cities were booming in the two or three years up to the middle to latter part of 2017. Retail spending was also strong. Looking at the downside, in Perth where house prices have fallen by more than 10 per cent since early 2015, consumer spending has been particularly weak.

Punters point to by-election troubles for Labor

Mon, 16 Jul 2018

 

If the flow of punter’s money is any guide, Labor are in for a very rough time on Sublime-Saturday on 28 July when there are five by-elections around Australia.

In the three seats where the results are not a forgone conclusion, the flow of money on Liberal candidates over the last few days has been very strong.

The Liberal Party are now favourites to win Braddon and Longman and in Mayo, Liberal candidate Georgina Downer has firmed from $4.20 into $2.75.

If the punters are right, Sublime-Saturday would see Labor lose Braddon and Longman and could see Liberal’s sneak back in Mayo.

If so, it would be odds on that Prime Minister Turnbull would go to the polls as soon as possible, not only to take advantage of the by-election fallout, but, from a different angle, go before the housing market and the economy really hit the wall, probably in late 2018 or 2019.

BRADDON

Liberals $1.70 (was $2.25)
Labor $2.05 (was $1.65)

MAYO

Liberals $2.75 (was $4.20)
Centre Alliance $1.35 (was $1.15)

LONGMAN

Liberals $1.50 (was $2.00)
Labor $2.50 (was $1.85)