Blog

Fri, 14 Mar 2014  |  

The Abbott government's cooking of the books in the Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook continues to be exposed, this time by Finance Minister Matthias Cormann himself.

In the Government's Monthly Financial Statement, which details actual spending and revenue for the government up to and including January, taxation revenue is running a thumping 1.5 per cent ahead of the projections outlined in MYEFO. In just seven months, that is $2.8 billion extra tax revenue over and above the increasingly discredited numbers in MYEFO.

Fri, 14 Mar 2014  |  

Here's a simple question.

The Treasurer Mr Hockey makes a claim that "Of the 17 top surveyed IMF countries, Labor left us with the fastest growth in spending of anyone in the world... and they left us with the third highest growth in debt of anyone in the top 17".

You are asked to check this for its factual basis, not an easy job, but it is important to see whether the Treasurer is telling porkies or if he is correct.

A fair enough strating point is to go to the Treasurer's office and ask, what is the source of this claim?

Fri, 14 Mar 2014  |  

The usually excellent ABC Fact Checking Unit has made an elementary error in its assessment of Australia's debt and deficit position.

In particular it says that Treasurer Joe Hockey is "correct on Australia's debt, spending".

The link is here: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-13/joe-hockey-correct-on-australia-debt-and-spending/5310736

On 6 March, Mr Hockey said on ABC radio that "Of the 17 top surveyed IMF countries, Labor left us with the fastest growth in spending of anyone in the world... and they left us with the third highest growth in debt of anyone in the top 17".

Mr Hockey added, "the fact of the matter is they've left a whole lot of landmines in the budget. We need to carefully remove those landmines and put us back on a path that gets us away from $123 billion of deficit, and starts to pay down the logjam of $667 billion of debt."

Thu, 13 Mar 2014  |  

Since a price was put on carbon on 1 July 2012, there have been a few interesting developments in the Australian economy and markets.

Here are a few:

Employment has increased by 193,100.

The ASX has risen by 32 per cent, which has seen the market capitalisation of the Australian stock market rise by just under $400 billion in 20 months. Around $90 billion in dividends have been paid out, over and above this, over that time.

Thu, 13 Mar 2014  |  

It was always going to happen – the pace of economic growth was certainly strong enough to be generating jobs – it was just the lag between a stronger economy and more jobs that was in question.

So news of a nice jump of 47,300 in employment in February and a flat unemployment rate is certainly good news and it is starting to bring the labour force data into line with the rapid economic expansion now underway in the broader economy.

With house building at record highs, consumer spending returning to above trend growth and export growth running at a strong double digit pace, many more jobs will be created in the year ahead. Indeed, it would be reasonable to expect around 200,000 jobs to be created in the next 12 months, even if the monthly profile to get there is extremely volatile.

Tue, 11 Mar 2014  |  

The price of iron ore was has been smashed in recent days with it dropping to US$104.70 a tonne yesterday.

The price is some 25 per cent down on the start of the year. It is a big fall for sure but just how worrying is it?

Well, the price of iron ore is, in USD terms, still 550 per cent higher than in 2004; it is 210 per cent higher than at the end of 2006 and over 70 per cent higher that the level in the middle of 2008.

Mon, 10 Mar 2014  |  

With iron ore prices falling sharply to be down about 15 per cent so far in 2014 in US dollar terms, it is good news for the Australian economy that export volumes are so very strong.

A glance at this chart from the RBA Chart Pack show how the volume of iron ore exports has risen over the past decade.

 

16tr-bcomx

Export receipts from iron ore are booming even with the lower price, simply because of the volume growth.

Of course it would be wonderful for the Australian economy to maintain sky high prices for iron ore while export volumes were booming. But it is unlikely that that that would ever be the case for any extended period of time. Good old economics is working with higher supply (and exports) being a factor contributing to the fall, regardless of demand from China.

Which of course is where a lot of the current focus is. Just how strong is the Chinese economy and with it, on-going demand for commodities?

Well, the Chinese authorities are aiming for 7.5 per cent GDP growth this year, a pace that seems strong enough to maintain demand.

There is nothing to fear from the falling iron ore price, at this stage, for the future of the economy while ever the growth in the volume of exports exceed the price fall. My guess is a fall below US$90 a tonne without any AUD depreciation would be a worry or if we were to see export volumes drop, it would be all bets off.

For now, watch the iron ore export volumes surge and look at the iron ore price with secondary interest.

Mon, 10 Mar 2014  |  

The government borrowed another $1.6 billion last week, which brings the total of gross new borrowings to $52.45 billion since the election six months ago.

As has been noted previously, this gross figure includes short term T-Notes and borrowing that cover other bond maturities.

According to the Australian Office of Financial Management, the amount of government debt (gross) has increased by $27.5 billion since the election to a record high $300.7 billion.

Fri, 07 Mar 2014  |  

The first interest rate hike in the last monetary policy tightening cycle was delivered in October 2009, when the cash rate rose by 25 basis points to 3.25 per cent.

Three months before that rate hike in July 2009, the RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens noted:

  • "output has been sluggish and capacity utilisation has fallen back to about average levels, with some further decline likely over the rest of the year. Weaker demand for labour is leading to lower growth in labour costs. These conditions should see inflation continue to abate over the period ahead.
  • A pick-up in housing credit demand suggests stronger dwelling activity is likely later in the year. House prices are tending to rise. Business borrowing, on the other hand, has been declining, as companies postpone investment plans and seek to reduce leverage in an environment of tighter lending standards.
  • Monetary policy has been eased significantly. Market and mortgage rates are at very low levels by historical standards, despite recent small increases. Business loan rates are below average. The effects of these changes will still be coming through for some time yet.
  • The Board's current view is that the outlook for inflation allows some scope for further easing of monetary policy, if needed."
Thu, 06 Mar 2014  |  

The run of staggeringly good news on the economy continues to roll out.

Today it is a massive lift in retail sales growth – up 1.2 per cent in January and a stonking 9 per cent annualised growth pace over the past 6 months. Consumers are wealthy, with house prices and stocks adding close to $1 trillion to household wealth in the last two years. With high savings, consumers are spending up big.

Just wait until the labour market turns in the next few months and job creation and wages pick up. Retailers are in clover.

The only surprise is that so many people are surprised by these dynamics.

THE LATEST FROM THE KOUK

Memo to RBA – be careful what you wish for. House prices are falling

Fri, 19 Jan 2018

The recent house price data from Corelogic are showing further falls in house prices.

The falls are, disconcertingly, most evident in Sydney where prices have dropped 0.5 per cent so far in January, which brings the aggregate fall since the September 2017 peak to a chunky 2.9 per cent. This means that for a $1 million property in September, the value has fallen $29,000 in just 4 months.

The house price weakness is not confined to Sydney.

In Melbourne, the Corelogic data shows house prices topping-out. Prices are down 0.3 per cent from the December 2017 peak which, to be sure, is not a large decline after the stunning increases of previous years, but a fall it is.

I'm out of the hammock to look at some facts about Australia's labour market

Thu, 18 Jan 2018

There was another round of euphoria as the monthly labour force data hit the screens. The data showed a nice 34,700 rise in employment in December which brought the total rise in jobs in 2017 to 403,100.

This is good news, to be sure, but how good is it really? What is the context for this increase in employment and how is Australia going in an ever vibrant and dynamic global economy?

Of some concern, Australia’s unemployment rate remains at 5.5 per cent – it actually ticked up from 5.4 per cent the prior month. Interestingly, and something less favourable, is the fact that the unemployment rate has been below 5.5 per cent for just two months (October and November 2017) in the last four and half years. Where is that 5 per cent or lower full-employment target everyone reckons we are near?

What’s more interesting, and a sign of the policy sloth that Australia is enduring at the moment, is that around the world, unemployment rates are falling and are impressively low.

Sure each country will have its quirks but have a look at our 5.5 per cent against these countries.