The Kouk's top 40 hits and misses

more Over the summer break, while fiddling through data bases, reading and just being interested in things, I unearthed a few quirky bits and pieces about the Australian economy, people, sport

The Kouk's Outlook

more If you need a reliable, accurate, thought provoking and informed economic forecasting at both local and international levels, look no further. Informed by Stephen's exceptionally broad experience and background, his


more Stephen Koukoulas has a rare and specialised professional experience over more than 25 years as an economist in Treasury, as Global Head of economic and market research, a Chief Economist
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An update of the “sell everything” forecast & bet

Mon, 02 May 2016

It has now been four months since RBS analyst Andrew Roberts shocked the world, or at least the gullible, with his recommendation to investors to “sell everything”. This nutty ‘forecast’ prompted me to offer Mr Roberts some skin in the game with a bet that he would be wrong. The bet was outlined here: 

The scorecard after nearly four months is:

The Kouk 9
Roberts 2

Recall that to win, Roberts only has to get six out of 11 - 'everything' did not need to fall.

The two markets where Roberts is ahead are US house prices which are down 0.02 per cent and the Nikkei which is down 3.1 per cent. Some that he missed are quite extraordinary. The iron ore price is up 64 per cent, oil 46 per cent, Brazilian stocks are up 36 per cent and even US stocks are up ov er 7 per cent.

Deflation, the RBA and the Budget: Me on Sky TV

Thu, 28 Apr 2016

The day after the shockingly low inflation result for the March quarter, I was on Sky TV discussing the implications of this for the RBA. 

Here is the link: