The Kouk's top 40 hits and misses

more Over the summer break, while fiddling through data bases, reading and just being interested in things, I unearthed a few quirky bits and pieces about the Australian economy, people, sport

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more If you need a reliable, accurate, thought provoking and informed economic forecasting at both local and international levels, look no further. Informed by Stephen's exceptionally broad experience and background, his

Economist

more Stephen Koukoulas has a rare and specialised professional experience over more than 25 years as an economist in Treasury, as Global Head of economic and market research, a Chief Economist
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THE LATEST FROM THE KOUK

Economic turmoil threatens budget

Fri, 17 Oct 2014

The global economic slowdown and market turmoil is a cause for concern for Australian policy makers.

The RBA will soon need to consider cutting interest rates based on low inflation, rising unemployment and general economic weakness. For the budget, Treasurer Joe Hockey is facing revenue write-downs from the disinflation funk that is hitting the local economy at the same time the government is ramping up spending. When the Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook is released in December, the budget deficits will be bigger than forecast at Budget time.

The clip below is me talking to Chris Hammer from Fairfax Media on 16 October.

http://media.theage.com.au/news/federal-politics/economic-turmoil-threatens-budget-5884584.html 

Tony turns to debt

Wed, 15 Oct 2014

This article was originally published on 30 April 2013 on my old blog, marketeconomics.com.au

The background to this article was Mr Abbott taking a significant pay cut after the 2007 election when he went from a Ministerial salary of around $200,000 a year to a Shadow Minister's salary of around $110,000 a year. He and his family clearly maintained their spending levels, did not 'tighten their belts' in any observable way and reverted to debt - a $710,000 mortgage - to cover his expensive lifestyle choices. The article has not been altered to take account of events since April 2013.  

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Here's a true story. It's about a man called Tony.

Tony is a hard working Aussie, doing his best to provide for his family. He has a good job, but such is the nature of his work that his income is subject to unpredictable, sharp and sudden changes.

Tony's much loved and wonderful children go to a private school and wow, those fees that he choses to pay are high. He used to have a moderate mortgage, especially given he was doing well with an income well over $200,000 per annum.

Then things on the income side turned sour.